Wednesday, August 21, 2013

Market Timing Update (8/21/13)

[PS] Dow squiggles -
inspired by comments from Richard - The green count has the [iii] or C low at today's low. The red count adopts a small degree skewed triangle, which places the [iii] or C low at the next low.

[EOD] Stocks -
SP500 has now filled two upward gaps (Chart 1 blue gaps)and one downward gap (Chart 1 red gap). There are one unfilled upward gap around 1635 and one unfilled downward gap around 1680. We'll see which one gets filled first, if at all.

On the squiggle level, we are tracking the following best-effort counts (see Chart 2).
(red) impulse down with today's high as wave[iv] or (a) of [iv]
(green) zigzag or flat down. Wave C is ending with an expanding EDT as indicated. Wave C ends at today's low or the next low.
(blue) moving wave [ii] to the right and relying on the green count, wave [iii] ended today or ends on the next low.

[105pm] SPX update -

[705am] ES update -
Full moon. FOMC minutes release. On the bearish side, if the overnight slide continues, it may be better counted as wave (v) of 3/C rather than wave 5 - we will see. On the bullish side, there would be positive divergence between ES and YM if the 1641ES low holds, with the overnight slide as a wave (b) or (ii) or a truncated potential fifth wave as proposed above. See chart.