Monday, October 22, 2012

Market Timing Update (10/22/12)

[645pm/PS] ES update -
ES found support and rebounded off Fib-236 retrace of the prior upswing (Chart 1). The rebound now has regained the prior base channel support (Chart 1). At the moment, the AH rebound retraced Fib-382 of last week's decline (Chart 2).

[345pm/EOD] Stocks -
Primary count is a counter-trend pullback against the upswing off the June low - see Dip (10/19/12) for discussion. Given the current leg of decline is a five-down, the proposed C(or Y)-down or [a] of C (or Y)-down is approaching its end. The pending rebound will shed additional light. See charts.
From a time perspective, the prior upswing lasted about 15 weeks, the current correction has lasted about 5 weeks so far.

[120pm] SPX squiggles -
SPX wedging to finish [a]-down of Y-down or all of Y-down.

[905am] ES update -
Primary count is the red count in the chart.  See Dip (10/19/12) for discussions.