Thursday, August 18, 2011

Market Timing Update (8/18/11)

[EOD] Stocks and Bonds -
Bonds - see the 240pm entry.
Stocks - see the 2 charts below
[bullish] a 2nd wave for B wave retrace (2nd chart, blue, purple)
[bearish] a 5th wave sell-off, with potential of extension especially if it is the red (5)-down as marked in the 1st chart.
[240pm] Bonds count update (10Y UST) -
Today's rally - assuming no data issues - invalidates the bearish re-count on 10Y UST price (bullish re-count on yield, TNX). So we are left with the bullish count on price (bearish count on yield, TNX). See the left chart.

On the right chart, if we rush the count, the low in yield is in:) (see green labels). If we take our time, the march to zero yield continues (see blue labels)

[940am] SPX count update -

[8am] ES count update -
As mentioned last night - ES likely has finished an 3-"3"-5 upward flat from its nominal low at yesterday's session high, based on the bearish count (blue, red). If one takes the orthodox low at the B of the flat (green), one has the initial 5-up (aka C of the flat). Here are the charts.