Saturday, June 25, 2016

MTU Weekend Ed. - Bull/Bear Profiles (6/24/16 close)

... draft in progress, subject to change ...

The Brexit vote thwarted a fourth attempt to break above resistance in SPX (Chart 1 and see Breakout Attempts (6/10/16). Given the perceived impact of Brexit, this is a good time to review long term and short term bull/bear scenarios in SPX.
With the caveat that many possibilities exist, we take a look at the long term bull/bear tracking profile in Chart 2.

[Blue-bullish] The April high (2111.05) completed wave (1)/(A)-up of wave [5]-up off the 2009 bottom. A wave (2)/(B)-down is in progress.

[Black-LT bullish, ST bearish] Wave [4]-down off the 2009 bottom is still in progress. The entire pullback is likely either a (double-)zigzag-like structure or a triangle-like structure as marked on Chart 2. The Brexit crash just initiated the next leg down in these respective sequences.

[Red-bearish] SPX topped in 2015. The sell-off to 1810.10 can be counted as an LDT or an ABC-structure, the subsequent rebound to 2120.55 is an ABC structure. The Brexit crash initiated the next leg down - wave (iii)-down of an impulse or wave (c) of a flat.

This past week's price actions represent a key pivot in the above long term tracking scenarios.  Fortunately, short term wave structures in the cash index and futures are in sync with our long term interpretations.  See Chart 3 (SPX) and Chart 4 (ES).

Short term, SPX is probing for short term support around its MA200 which currently sits around 2020. Short term dynamic support is around 2035 and resistance around 2085.  There are two unfilled gaps below around 1993 and 1865 and one unfilled gap above Friday's rebound high of 2073.47 (Chart 5).