Saturday, December 12, 2015

MTU Weekend Ed. - Wave E-down (12/11/15)

Most stocks are once again rejected by their 2015 topping zone (Chart 1). Despite the strength of Friday's selloff, price structures across benchmark indexes appear corrective at the moment. It has interesting implications on the top three longer term tracking scenarios (Chart 2).

The blue wave [4]-down has been tracking the best and is moderately more likely than the second-best-tracking green wave [5]-up. The red wave [4]-down is on the table but need further confirmation.

If so, the current selloff ahead of next week's rate decision is either wave (E)-down or wave (2)-down. Note that a Fed-driven wave (E)-down is quite befitting the personality of the terminal wave of a triangle. Furthermore, since we already have a complex wave (B)-up, wave (E)-down is likely to be a simple (double) zig-zag-like structure.




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