Saturday, January 17, 2015

MTU Weekend Ed. - Near Term Tracking (1/16/15)

The two median term scenarios outlined in What If Wave Three Ended a Year Ago?(1/9/15) continue to track this past week, under the assumption that wave three off the 2009 low in stocks have ended. See Chart 1.

However, price actions have largely failed to identify which scenario is more likely at the moment. As such, Chart 2 presents the top near term scenarios.

[green] This count corresponds to the green count in Chart 1. The wave (2) correction of wave [5]-up either ended at Friday’s low or is likely to end at a retest of the green trend line in Chart 2. Expect the rest of the wave [5] upswing to push SP500 toward 2500-2600.

[blue] This count corresponds to the blue count in Chart 1. Wave (E)-down of the proposed skewed triangle is likely tracing out a flat with potentially a long wave C decline to come. Friday’s rebound is wave [ii]-up of wave C-down. The wave C decline is likely to fill the gap just above 1900 in SP500, and is likely to conclude around 1860.

[red] This count serves as an alternative to either wave (2) in the green count or wave (E) in the blue count above. Friday’s rebound is the final leg of an upward expanded flat rebound. Expect SP500 to reverse course following the conclusion of wave [ii] or B upswing as marked in Chart 2. The subsequent decline may initially look like wave E of a bullish triangle marked by the gray trend lines, which eventually fails.