Saturday, December 14, 2013

MTU Weekend Ed. - Neckline and more (12/13/13)

The sell-off in SP500 this past week has brought the index back to the neckline of a potential head-and-shoulders pattern discussed in Short Term Update (12/16/13). The recent low in SP500 also overlapped its October high, suggesting the retrace is not against the advance since the November low, but at least against the advance since the October low.

As such, Chart 1 highlights near term scenarios.

[green] The current pullback is wave 4, correcting a wave 3 advance between the August low and November high. This count suggests a new high to follow.

[black or red] The advance since the June 2013 low is complete, either in the form of a regular five-wave advance (black) or a double three (red). These counts suggest meaningful declines to follow. See long-term scenarios below.

Chart 2 summarizes long term scenarios, with the recent top being the top of a third wave of certain degree the bullish case or C wave the bearish case .

[green - near term extension] The current pullback is wave (iv) with respect to the June 2013 wave [iv] low. One more high will complete wave 3 with respect to the mid-2012 wave 2 low.

[blue] The recent high marks the end of wave (3) with respect to the 2011 low. The current decline will likely push SP500 to the 1550-1650 area.

[red or black] The recent high completes wave [3] with respect to the 2009 low under the bullish interpretation (red) or wave [C] with respect to the 2009 low under the bearish interpretation.
Note that the 2010 wave [1] or [A] high of 1219.80 is right around the 50% mark of the entire rally since the 2009 low to date.





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