Saturday, August 10, 2013

MTU Weekend Ed. - Short Term Update (8/9/13 Close)

If the run-up from the late July lows to the early August highs in stocks was a fifth wave (see A Fifth Wave (8/2/13)), that wave was certainly complete. However, major indexes are not confirming each other at key pivot points. 

For example, the following charts present the wave structure in INDU (Chart 1), SPX (Chart 2) and NDX (Chart 3) since the early August highs. Note that these indexes did not make simultaneous higher highs or lower lows in key pivot points over the past week.  One would need to reassess following a potential near term upswing as hinted by the squiggle counts.

As a result, the top near term tracking scenarios are as follows.

[1] The August high marked the beginning of a more meaningful trend change. This is tracked by the red count in Charts 1, 2 and 3.
[2] The current pullback is a fourth wave correction with respect to the June low, as tracked by the green count in Chart 4.
[3] The current pullback is a second wave correction with respect to the June low. This scenario suggests that the upswing off the June low is extending over the next few months.