MTU Weekend Ed. - Traking Counts (5/17/13)

We continue to focus on the advance since the November 2012 low. Chart 1 updates our tracking counts on SP500. Since the wave up from the April 2013 low is now rather large, tweaks to previously discussed near term bullish counts (i.e. extension) are necessary in order to prevent the third wave from being the shortest. Specifically,

[green] (modified) Wave [iii] of 3 is itself extending, with the advance from the April low being only (iii) of [iii] of 3-up.

[black] (added) A less bullish count would place the extension with wave 5-up rather than wave 3-up.  In this case,  the advance from the April low is wave [iii] of 5-up.

[blue] (unchanged) SP500 is wrapping up final small-degree subdivisions of wave 5-up. Under this interpretation, squiggle level wave counts suggest that wave 5-up is very close to its end if not already there (See Chart 2 and Chart 3 on the Dow, which has offered better-formed waves in recent days).  In any case, the upswing from the April low looks nearly complete if not already there.