Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Market Timing Update (2/22/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
No change to the big picture assessment discussed in Turn Window (2/17/12) and yesterday's EOD update.
Today's EOD update adds additional thoughts on
(1) a downward turn from a time perspective  and (2) potential of further advance with little retrace from the perspective of cross market analysis.

A downward turn from a time perspective (Chart 1)
Based on the green count, the first two advances of the proposed EDT (i and iii of [iii]-up) took approximately the same amount of time to finish.  Depending on where one marks the green iv-down of [iii]-up  (see iv? and iv), time equality points to a turn later this week or early next week.  As mentioned in yesterday's EOD update, the upside is likely capped by 13150 in the Dow based on a contracting wedge.

Potential for further advance with little retrace from the perspective of cross market analysis (Chart 2)
The concurrent divergence between the Transports and the Dow has been much discussed of late.  However, the count in Chart 2 on the Transports and the primary blue count of the Dow in Chart 1 would place them roughly in sync for a fifth wave advance from here. 



[845am] ES squiggles -

potential for a regular five from the recent low rather than a wedge. we'll find out.
[825am] DAX, ES update -
DAX and ES topping. See yesterday's 710am entry for the larger counts and discussions on DAX (this chart).


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