Chart 1 shows key wave structures in SPX from its Dec-2011 low (blue) and Nov-2011 low (green). The pending high of the advance off the overnight low has the potential to be one of the following. The squiggle count in Chart 2 help illustrate these top counts.
(1) blue (i)-up of [v]-up
(2) green (b)-up of [iv]-down
(3) blue [iii] from Dec-low OR green [iii] from Nov-low. See the red count in Chart 2.
(4) (much less likely) blue [v] from Dec-low
The personality of an anticipated retrace will clarify the odds - note the multi-day negative divergence in Chart 2.
[855am]ES update -
Note the more bullish blue count, which is still competing with the topped red count.
[840am]DAX update -
Note the more bullish purple count, which is still competing with the topped blue count.