Friday, August 19, 2011

MTU Weekend Ed. - Wave Logic (8/19/11 Close)

Reading the crash (8/5/11) and Benchmark Low (8/12/11) offer analysis and a framework regarding whether the recent crash is the end of a correction or the beginning of further declines.

We wait for the proposed benchmark low. This week’s price action suggests that the benchmark low is around the corner but may not be in place - unless on truncation as Friday's decline (nearly) completed an impulse wave decline from the week's high.

A review of the wave logic should help clarify the big picture at this juncture (Chart 1)

[1] Where’s the top?
There are four candidates for the top (in SPX, INDU and WLSH, etc), i.e. those on Feb 18, May 2, July 7, July 21. The Feb 18th top and July 21st (possibly July 7th) top appear most preferable, since the “only“ palatable ending 5-wave advances are before these two tops.

[2] What’s the local count?
Wave logic then suggests that
(blue labels) the correction could be ending based on the Feb 18th top
(red labels) a new bear trend has just begun based on the July 21st top.

[3] Are bullish counts even possible for NDX and TRAN?
The challenge is obvious - The DJ Transportation Average has already experienced a clear 5-wave decline from its nominal high (Chart 3). The Nasdaq 100 index has also show a steep decline from its nominal high and is about to break its recent low (Chart 2).

However, bullish counts are not yet ruled out - See Chart 2 and Chart 3.

[4] What’s the larger count?
The bullish larger count could be a continued wave x-up from the 2009 low, in the form of a double zigzag or a triple three (Chart 4).

The bearish larger count would be the start of cycle wave c (Chart 5).

Appendix - Technical damage
The recent crash has certainly resulted in significant technical damage. From one perspective, for example, here's an expanding list of world markets that have breached their 2010 low.
Australia, Brazil, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Spain, Switzerland, UK (very close), China (approaching), India (approaching).