Sunday, August 7, 2011

Market Timing Update (8/8/11)

[EOD]Stocks (SPX -6.66%) and bonds -
In stocks, the most natural count is an impulse wave decline from the nominal high or the early or late July highs. Today's sell-off could be the 5th wave since the early July high (blue), at the risk of rushing the counts (red).

In bonds (using 10Y UST), the recent massive rally calls for a recount as an A-B-C decline in the 10Y yield from its recovery high (blue). The more extreme count would be a thrust out of a large triangle (red).

[1220pm, 118pm, 3pm] SPX squiggles -
Potential EDT, busted, turns out to be an LD
[10am] SPX count update -
see the 2nd chart below

[8am] ES count update -
two potential triangles, one bullish, one bearish

[8/7/11 730pm] ES count update -
A small-degree v of (v) may or may not show up based on this count.