Thursday, August 4, 2011

Market Timing Update (8/4/11)

[EOD] Stocks -
SPX - retraced more than 40% of the July 2010 to Feb 2011 advance as a result of today's near 5% decline. The corrective structure since the Feb high survives for now, but odds of a top being in place has definitely increased. A near term low likely.

VIX surged - an upward flat OR [iii] of 3 in progress.

[250pm] ES udpate -

[1210pm] 10Y Yield -
While the FOMC is in the silent period - meeting next week - the market is apparently not. See the 2nd chart below.
[1150am] VIX Count update -
VIX catching up, likely an upward flat, the extreme case being a 3 of 3.
[1045am] Tracking Count update(SPX) -

[7am] Overnight update (ES, DX) -
ES - a potential 5-up and 3-down setup since yesterday's low
DX - double bottom or serious extension down ahead