Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Market Timing Update (8/30/11)

[EOD]Stocks -
Wave structures since the nominal low in SPX and ES. Please see [745am] and [8am] entries below for comments. The upper trend channel line will continue to attract price (see 1245pm entry).
[240pm]SPX update -

[1245] ES and SPX update -
Leave room for the market to hit the upper trend channel, back and forth filing notwithstanding. See tracking counts.

[800] SPX update -
regaining previous support.

[745am] ES update -
The bullish count would be a series of 1s2s from the orthodox low (1st chart, green).

The bearish count would be a double zigzag corrective rebound, with a triangle connecting wave (1st chart, black). Regarding the larger picture, the current rebound is rather sizable. Thus it is more reasonable to expect it to be wave (4) from the nominal high under the bearish count (chart 1, red), with lower probability of it being a wave 4 of one smaller degree. If so, leave room for a truncated wave (5)-down, as (5)=(1) from the current rebound high of 1210 projects to 1094.75 in ES.

The super bearish count would be a wave 2-up or wave B-up, approaching its end (not shown)?