Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Market Timing Update (4/12/11)

[EOD]stocks -
No change to the 2pm update, note the top tracking counts.
On the bullish side, MA50 and 20 are acting as support for now.
On the bearish side, the recent decline has been accompanied by a pick up in volume and bearish breadth so far.
On balance, we may be looking at a 2nd wave pullback or a [y]-down decline.
While a truncated top is possible, it's too early to tell - see Unfinished Business 2011 (4/8/11).


[2pm] count update -
The decline from the nominal high in SPX cash is so far a three with potential to become a five. In this case, an upside target area for the current small degree 4th wave rebound is around 1318. A 1/4 overlap may signal the end of the pullback. See chart for various tracking counts.

[730am] Overnight update -
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