Friday, June 17, 2016
Thursday, June 16, 2016
Market Timing Update (6/16/16)
[EOD] Stocks-
Today's rebound brought SPX above its MA50 and VIX inside its BB. Some follow-through advance appears likely. Near term, the current rebound may have the potential to reach/kiss the underside of the green line in Chart 2.
[1050am] SPX update-
ST channel and lines. See chart.
Today's rebound brought SPX above its MA50 and VIX inside its BB. Some follow-through advance appears likely. Near term, the current rebound may have the potential to reach/kiss the underside of the green line in Chart 2.
[1050am] SPX update-
ST channel and lines. See chart.
Wednesday, June 15, 2016
Market Timing Update (6/15/16)
[EOD] Stocks -
Today's rebound stopped at the overhead resistance discussed yesterday. Tracking today's high as the end of wave 4 or the first leg of a larger rebound. See charts.
Today's rebound stopped at the overhead resistance discussed yesterday. Tracking today's high as the end of wave 4 or the first leg of a larger rebound. See charts.
Tuesday, June 14, 2016
Market Timing Update (6/14/16)
[EOD] Stocks -
SPX hit a key TL today (Chart 1) and rebounded, also tested the MA50 and closed nearly at MA50. The low of this leg of the downswing is likely in and a rebound is in progress. The Alt is that the rebound into the close is part of a small-degree 4th wave, which is likely to be capped by the green line in Chart 2.
SPX hit a key TL today (Chart 1) and rebounded, also tested the MA50 and closed nearly at MA50. The low of this leg of the downswing is likely in and a rebound is in progress. The Alt is that the rebound into the close is part of a small-degree 4th wave, which is likely to be capped by the green line in Chart 2.
Monday, June 13, 2016
Market Timing Update (6/13/16)
[EOD] Stocks -
SPX dropped to its MA50 today, in a visual five-wave decline which can also be tracked by an ABC at the moment(Chart 1).
A five-wave decline suggests further selling. An ABC decline also brings up the possibility that this is wave(e)-down of a large expanding triangle (Chart 2, green).
No change in the larger tracking (Chart 3).
SPX dropped to its MA50 today, in a visual five-wave decline which can also be tracked by an ABC at the moment(Chart 1).
A five-wave decline suggests further selling. An ABC decline also brings up the possibility that this is wave(e)-down of a large expanding triangle (Chart 2, green).
No change in the larger tracking (Chart 3).
Friday, June 10, 2016
MTU Weekend Ed. - Breakout Attempts (6/10/16 close)
... draft in progress, subject to change ...
A key trend line has served as important resistance on SPX since its all-time-high in May 2015. The red trend line in Chart 1 connects the all time high and the next lower low. Since then, SPX has made three attempts to break above this resistance line, as shown by the red numbers in Chart 1.
The first two attempts have failed.
The current rally off the May low broke above resistance with impressive momentum for much of the past week, but fizzled on Friday. Friday's near 20-point drop also turned an otherwise up week into a slight loss.
Is Friday's sell-off the usual retest of the trend line or an indication of another breakout failure? The jury is likely still out.
We observed that swings in SPX since its all-time high are better tracked as three-wave structures (Chart 2). If this three-wave dynamic is still in progress, we would logically track the current high as
* the entire blue C-up. A large reversal has just started.
* [a]-up of blue C-up. The blue C-up is subdividing higher.
* all or part of [b]-up of blue B-down as shown by the gray labels. Once [b]-up is complete, [c]-down is to complete the large B-down, to be followed by the large C-up.
A key trend line has served as important resistance on SPX since its all-time-high in May 2015. The red trend line in Chart 1 connects the all time high and the next lower low. Since then, SPX has made three attempts to break above this resistance line, as shown by the red numbers in Chart 1.
The first two attempts have failed.
The current rally off the May low broke above resistance with impressive momentum for much of the past week, but fizzled on Friday. Friday's near 20-point drop also turned an otherwise up week into a slight loss.
Is Friday's sell-off the usual retest of the trend line or an indication of another breakout failure? The jury is likely still out.
We observed that swings in SPX since its all-time high are better tracked as three-wave structures (Chart 2). If this three-wave dynamic is still in progress, we would logically track the current high as
* the entire blue C-up. A large reversal has just started.
* [a]-up of blue C-up. The blue C-up is subdividing higher.
* all or part of [b]-up of blue B-down as shown by the gray labels. Once [b]-up is complete, [c]-down is to complete the large B-down, to be followed by the large C-up.
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