Market Timing Update (8/16/14)

[EOD] Stocks -

[8:50am] ES update -

MTU Weekend Ed. - Near Term Scenarios (6/13/14)

The 1.52% drop from its record high in SP500 this past week bodes well for the proposed ending diagonal triangle (Chart 1 and Chart 2), following a proper overthrow (6/6/14). If the EDT scenario plays out, SP500 is likely to see 1750 before the end of Q3.

Moreover, a market cycle based analysis projected a major top (but not the top) on June/5/2014 or June/6/2014.  SP500 in fact topped on June/9/2014 and so did NDX on June/11/2014.  If the cycle is in play, the next low in SP500 is likely around 1800 and on or about July/16/2014. The pullback in this case is likely paired with the green wave (4) in Chart 3.



However, price actions this past week could signal that the pullback was already over.

[1] SP500's retest of the upper EDT line support has been successful so far (Chart 1). There's additional support below at the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout area (around 1900).

[2] This past week's pullback can be comfortably counted as an ABC corrective structure. Since NDX peaked two days later than did SP500, we may be looking at an expanded flat in NDX (Chart 4) and a flat in SP500 (Chart 5).  Moreover, wave A-down conveniently divides the entire pullback range into 0.382 and 0.618 Fibonacci segments.

[3] The short lived pullback in this case fits the larger complex three structure discussed before (Chart 6). It would be the small-pullback before the final overthrow.






While it is a challenge to decide which of the above scenarios is most likely, selling opportunities are emerging from a big picture perspective.  Let's see where the market brings next week.

Market Timing Update (6/13/14)

[730am] ES/NQ update-
On balance, likely an ABC pullback from the high based on the price action so far. See charts on ES and NQ.

Market Timing Update (6/12/14)

[EOD] Stocks-
SP500 is retesting the wedge / green line support, on a full moon (Chart 1). Chart 2 tracks the squiggles from the high. The market should tell if this is an initial drop of the proposed EDT or a small-degree 4th wave fairly soon.





[1130am] SPX update-

[725am] ES update-
up channel and down channel. See charts.

Market Timing Update (6/11/14)

[EOD] Stocks -

[735am] ES update -
The cash market is resolving towards a potential island reversal/gap down - one of the scenarios discussed in yesterday's EOD update. ES is currently testing trendline and prior support. see chart.

Market Timing Update (6/10/14)

[EOD] Stocks-
On one hand, a failed HS in ES is likely bullish and hints at a new high (Chart 1). On the other hand, the recent gap in SP500 cash presents a partial set up for an island reversal if the market chooses to act that way (i.e.) gap down tomorrow (Chart 2). Let's wait and see.

[720am] ES update-

Market Timing Update (6/9/14)

[EOD] Stocks -

[9am] ES update -