Market Timing Update (10/14/13)

[EOD] Stocks -
No change from 2pm update. New highs in RUT, NDX(effectively) and MID.
[2pm] SPX update -
A visual five-up from the Oct low.  Moment of truth as to the larger count approaching - extension (from today's low and/or from the Oct low) or truncation?

[945am] SPX update -

[10/13/13-9pm] ES update -
Putting the Sunday night "crash" into perspective. See chart for tracking counts from the low.

MTU Weekend Ed. - Showdown (10/11/13)

The U.S. government has been forced to partially shut down for two weeks now due to funding dispute. The debt ceiling is also looming. Stocks rebounded strongly late last week on news of a temporary fix in the works. The market faces a showdown week ahead.

The rebound off this past week's low presents a strong impulse wave that likely has more room to rise. The blue count in Chart 1 tracks Friday's high as wave three of the proposed five wave advance. The less bullish red count in Chart 1 will be invalidated with a higher high on Monday, unless the market turns down over the weekend over unfavorable development in negotiations.

With the rebound, we are now able to put the Sep/Oct price actions into perspective at the next higher wave degree. See Chart 2.

[blue] The Sep/Oct sell-off is an ABC structure. The current rally is wave 1 of a new upswing. A new all-time high in SP500 is likely before the October low is breached.

[green] The current rally is wave (X) which is a zigzag. This count survives only if the market reverses over the weekend.

[black] The September high in SP500 is a major top. The impulse wave A or 1-down is followed by a complex wave B or 2-up as marked. Wave B or 2-up takes on a flat-like structure of flat-flat-five or three.

Given the October new highs in RUT, MID and a new recovery high in NDX, odds appear to favor a new all time high in SP500.

However, the Dow has breached its late August low during the sell-off. it's prudent and potentially necessary to allow for minor near term adjustments to our larger tracking counts discussed in Shutdown(10/4/13) and Monthly Outlook Update(9/27/13). See Chart  3 to Chart 5 below.

Market Timing Update (10/11/13)

[1150am] SPX update -
Squiggles from the low. SPX is concluding a five-up (red) or at three of that five-up (blue). See charts.

[820am] ES update -
Day 11. See chart.

Market Timing Update (10/10/13)

[940 am] SPX update -
Follow up on SPX as discussed in yesterday's update. See charts.

[815 am] ES update -
Day 10. Short term fix on debt ceiling in the works.
ABC or ABC-X-ABC or 1s2s. See yesterday's update for details.
Overnight rally in ES is approaching the upper channel line. Let's see if it is able to break out.

Market Timing Update (10/9/13)

[EOD] Stocks -
The Dow broke its late August low. While other indexes can diverge from the Dow, it's prudent and potentially necessary to allow for adjustments to near term bullish counts. See Chart 1 and Chart 2. (The bearish count with a top already in place is more straight-forward.)

On the squiggle level, the rebound from today's low can be counted as a five (Chart 3). The larger ABC structure could be counted as complete, with allowance of a retest of the low or a minor breach (Chart 4).  Price actions in the next few days will shed light on whether the larger structure is a completed three, a developing larger double three, or a series of 1s and 2s down.

[1130 am] SPX/ES -
The Dow broke its late August low and SPX is holding on. ABC is likely complete or nearly so. Moment of truth ahead as to ABC or a series of 1s/2s (or double three). See charts.

[815 am] ES update -
Day 9. Fed chair nomination day.

Market Timing Update (10/8/13)

[EOD] Stocks -
Going back to basics, one observes a 7-wave decline based on lower lows (and lower highs) in SPX and ES. In addition, the decline has channeled well so far. Thus, odds remain favorable for recent weakness in stocks being corrective. See charts.
With a bit of speculation, the pending low might be the overthrow of a skewed triangle dating back to the May peak - see the ES chart and this chart and Shutdown(10/4/13).

[1115am] SPX/ES update -
At the moment,
ES counts as an EDT within EDT at the green line 1, or the blue ABC-ABC.
SPX counts as ABC or 1-down.

[810am] ES update -
Day 8. Q3 earnings after market close.
A slight lower low in the ES overnight satisfies the minimum requirement of the proposed A-B(triangle)-C(EDT) structure (Chart 2, blue AB and green C). If so, expect a budget deal.
Other possibilities remain, include the blue ABC-X-EDT and the red bearish triangle if one overlooks the slight lower wave d low. 

Market Timing Update (10/7/13)

[EOD] Stocks -
The A-B triangle-C EDT structure in ES discussed this morning continues to appeal. See charts.

[810am] ES update -
 Day 7 - see Shutdown(10/4/13) for discussion. In ES, the A-B triangle-C EDT structure looks appealing (Chart 1 blue A & B and green C). Chart 2 shows how it can fit into the larger structure.