Market Timing Update (9/18/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
SPX found support at trend line (Chart 1). Its decline can be counted as a five-down, either missing a final subdivision or is complete (Chart 1, red). As noted in recent posts, the decline in the Dow appears much less impulsive (chart 2).




[1150am] SPX/INDU squiggles -
Bullish double zigzag decline (blue) or bearish five-down (red) in SPX, with the wave structure in INDU supporting a corrective decline at the moment.  See charts.


[910am] ES update -
With the lower low overnight, near term wave structure in ES has evolved. See chart.
bullish black - a (disproportionate) double zigzag decline is complete
semi bullish black-alt - a LD-x-ED is still missing the last subdivision down
bearish red - LD down is complete

Market Timing Update (9/17/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
The decline from last week's high so far appears corrective and supports it being a potential small-degree 4th wave. See charts on the Dow and the 135pm chart on SPX.



[135pm] SPX update -










[920am] ES update -
Two near term tracking counts. Bearish green with LD down. Bullish black with wave [v] to come. See charts.

MTU Weekend Ed. - Are we there yet? (9/14/12 Close)

SP500 has continued its push to the black point number 5 in our Hope Rally model  (Chart 1).  It was up 1.94% last week and is now less than 8% below its all time high.

With the exception of transports, most benchmark indexes have now made new recovery highs, confirming the prior breakout in SP500, Wilshire 5000 and Nasdaq indexes.

The key questions raised in Break Out (9/7/12) remain operative:
(1) Where (and when) is the proposed wave 5 likely to end?
(2) Would the associated black point number 5 complete the Hope Rally or are there point-6-down and point-7-up to follow?

We continue to see early October (+/-) as a potential timing of the black point number 5 and the pending high unlikely to surpass the all time high.

In addition to the observations in Break Out (9/7/12), we offer the following observations.

[1] The minimum requirement for a high has been met, especially in the wave structure of the Dow. Chart 2 shows that the Dow may be forming a potential ending diagonal triangle since its June low, complete with an overthrough. Chart 3 shows a potential five wave advance since the June low in SP500 is also nearly complete.

[2] From a time perspective, October represents the time equality between 2007high-2012high and 2002low-2007high (Chart 4, vertical lines).

[3] SP500's advance/decline profile still does not confirm the breakout in SP500 (Chart 5), similar to the non-confirmation between transports and the Dow. Negative divergence continues to exist.

Market Timing Update (9/14/12)

[910am] ES update -

Market Timing Update (9/13/12)

[EOD] Stocks -

SPX is now obviously on its way to the black point #5 based on our Hope Rally model (Chart 1). Whether that will be the end of the Hope Rally or there will be 6-down and 7-up to follow remains to be seen.

The question at hand is how much upside potential is left for the current run.

On the bullish side, squiggle count can accommodate a small-degree [iv]-down and [v]-up if one counts the wave 4 low ending with a triangle (Chart 2).

On the bearish side, wave 5 could be approaching its end if one counts the wave 4 low at the nominal low (Chart 2). We have discussed these counts in recent updates.

Also on the bearish side, the wave structure in the DOW now presents a potential bearish EDT since the June low(Chart 3). If so, INDU should be capped by 13786, and realistically by 13600/13650. So caution is required.



[1255pm] SPX update -

[8am] ES update -
Near term ES structure - The most bullish one being the green wave [ii] with an terminal triangle wave (c). The most bearish one being an expanded flat (potentially at several degrees, e.g. black (c)[ii]-down or red [c]4-down, etc).

Market Timing Update (9/12/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
A 3rd wave-up (small degree green or larger degree blue in Chart 2) is now a decent possibility. 


[1030am] SPX update -

[815am] ES update -

Market Timing Update (9/11/12)

[EOD/230pm] Stocks -
This morning's rise is likely[i]-up of 5-up based on the green count or part of [b]-up of 2-down based on the blue count. The red count tracks a trend change.

[910am] ES update -