Market Timing Update (4/18/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
Price action counts best as an ABC decline off yesterday's high, likely incomplete. See charts.


[1005am] SPX update -
[b]-down likely in progress.










[7am] ES update -

Market Timing Update (4/17/12)

[EOD] Stocks
The wave structure in SP500 counts better as an ABC rebound in SP500, approaching its end. However, the retrace in the Dow is especially deep.



[345pm] SPX squiggles -










[1030am] SPX update -


[650am] ES update -
No change in the larger counts as outlined in Retest (4/13/12). See charts for near term squiggle development.

Market Timing Update (4/16/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
Chart 1 updates the chart in the 150pm entry. All options discussed in the 150pm entry are still on the table.
Chart 2 offers a squiggle on the on 1min chart for the near term bullish count which is looking at a 1/2/1/2 or LDT setup.
See Retest (4/13/12) for thoughts on the larger count.



[150pm] SPX update -
Zigzag advance from today's low at the moment. On the bullish side, it could be the start of C-up of an upward flat (blue) or something more bullish (green). On the bearish side, leave room for an expanding EDT 5th wave (purple [v], red C) or LDT (red [i] or [i]/[ii]/(i)/(ii)).
[1020am] SPX squiggles and NQ update -
interesting juncture in wave structures, see charts.

[710am] ES update -
see Retest (4/13/12) for more details

MTU Weekend Ed. - Retest (4/13/12 Close)

For U.S. stocks, a fourth wave correction (with ambiguous degree, see below) or an outright trend change is likely in progress. Please also see discussions in Shift (3/23/12) and Outlook (3/29/12).

Based on the working assumption that the Hope Rally is a cycle-degree b wave advance, Chart 1 illustrates where the market likely stands.

(blue) A fourth wave correction with respect to either the November 2011 low or the October 2011 low is in progress, to be followed by higher highs (Chart 2). Cycle wave b-up will be over when the Hope Rally completes a simple zigzag.

(green) A fourth wave, wave (D) correction within an ending diagonal triangle (EDT) dating back to the 2010 low. Note that the EDT is largely driven by quantitative easing (QE) and has a tendency to loose steam around the end of each QE episode. If so, another round of stimulus is likely to accompany a wave (E) overthrow.

(red) A double zigzag completes the cycle wave b advance at the recent high. A trend change or a cycle wave c decline is underway.



Odds favor the fourth wave interpretation as long as SP500 does not meaningfully breach its decade-long support/resistance zone (Chart 3). At the moment, a potential retest of the breakout is in progress. The bearish count would be significantly strengthened if we have a false breakout with support around 1300 failing.

For the near term, the proposed fourth wave correction could take up more time and price range. See Chart 4.

Market Timing Update (4/13/12)

[1120am] SPX count update -
see the 2nd chart below.
[950am] SPX squiggles -
Top squiggle counts - recent high bullish wave (iii) or bearish wave [x]. Awaiting confirmation.


[545am] ES update -

Market Timing Update (4/12/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
SPX is at around 50% retrace of the decline from the nominal high and has entered the prior breakdown zone and is facing near term resistance.


[1110am] SPX squiggles -
see the 2nd chart below.
[630am] ES update -

Market Timing Update (4/11/12)

[10am] SPX squiggle update -
top wave structures for the short term -
(blue) completed zigzag down from the nominal high
(red) completed five down from the nominal high
(purple) wave [v]-down of a five down from the nominal high is yet to come










[710am] ES / DAX update -
No change in the larger counts - 4th wave (could evolve into a B/X wave) or trend change