MTU Weekend Ed - Wedge Details and Morphing (1/14/22 close)

In out 1/7/22 close update - 

"In the context of a triple zigzag - see last weekend's update on the longer term structure -  there are now enough structure for a high, but also room for further more development, including a potential EDT from the October low in SPX. "

As of 1/14/22 close - 

Chart 1 updates details on a potential EDT from the October low in SPX.  Internal structure of the A of the wedge is ambiguous, which raises questions about the validity of an EDT.   The Dow made a lower low for the month this past week and SPX did not. Chart 1 also shows the invalidation and upside levels.

If the wedge gets invalidated,  a major high could be in (at the red H) in the context of a triple zigzag.  

Chart 2 updates the triple zigzag. 

Note that this triple zigzag has room to extend in time and price.  It's possible that the second (X) is not the October 2021 low [blue (X)] but a potential low in Feb/Mar 2022 [green (X) potentially testing SMA200]. In that scenario, SPX could be in the middle of this flat-like (or even triangle) structure.

 

 

 

 

MTU Weekend Ed. - A final wedge? (1/7/22 close)

In the context of a triple zigzag - see last weekend's update on the longer term structure -  there are now enough structure for a high, but also room for further more development, including a potential EDT from the October low in SPX. 

MTU Weekend Ed. - Wish You a Safe 2022 (12/31/21 close)

 Three visual possibilities for the large structure from the 2009 low.

But it is not easy to track an impulse from the 2020 low. 

MTU Weekend Ed. - Filtered (12/23/21 close)

The added price bars of the past week now have filtered our three tracking counts down to one, the triple zig-zag. 

MTU Weekend Ed. - Room for Santa Rally (12/17/21)

Previous tracking scenarios are unchanged. 

Chart 1 - The red and blue tracking counts anticipates a Santa Rally. 

Chart 2 - The most bearish count is the one where the green (B) is the blue Y - the top.

 

 

 

MTU Weekend Ed - Upswing (12/10/21 close)

 See last week's post for context

MTU Weekend Ed. - 50-DMA

We commented in the Nov 21 post (as of Nov 19 close) about "a possible high or  small-degree wave-two or wave-B retrace with MA50 as a potential floor." in SPX. And now the SPX is at its MA50 (and the Dow its MA200). 

While a (truncated) high (at the red 5) remains a possibility,  the subsequent decline looks more like a corrective wave (a double zigzag) than a impulse wave (an incomplete leading diagonal), and favors a wave-B (or X) or a wave-Two.  The following chart updates where we are in terms of these three possibilities.