Market Timing Update (9/19/14)

[745am] ES update-
Extended 3rd or extended 5th. See chart.

Market Timing Update (9/18/14)

[EOD] Stocks-
If this potential EDT tracks (see 1215pm update), SP500 cash index is likely capped at 2026.03 for the upswing since the early September low. See chart.

[1215pm] SPX update-
Potential small-degree EDTs. See charts.

[845am] ES update-

Market Timing Update (9/17/14)

[EOD] Stocks-
The minimum requirement for completion of wave 5 (Chart 1, red) has been met. Wave [v] of 5 may or may not extend (Chart 1, blue). Let's see what tomorrow's session brings.

[730am] ES update-

Market Timing Update (9/16/14)

[1040am] SPX/NDX update-

Market Timing Update (9/15/14)

[7am] ES update-
See chart and weekend commentary for discussion.

MTU Weekend Ed. - Terminal Move 2 (9/12/14)

Stocks appear to be waiting for next week's Fed meeting and Alibaba IPO to make the proposed small-degree 5th wave terminal move. This perspective labels the consolidation since late August as a small-degree 4th wave. See the green count in Chart 1 (SPX) and Chart 2 (NDX).

A competing alternative counts the advance since the August low as complete on September 9th. See the blue count in Chart 1 (SPX) and Chart 2 (NDX). According to this count, the terminal fifth waves have taken on interesting forms. In SPX, wave five is a rare sideways terminal triangle, which reflects the waning momentum of the advance. Note that the proposed top has failed to make a nominal high in SPX. In NDX, wave five is a regular impulse which ended at a nominal high. However, the visual structure resembles that of an expanding ending diagonal triangle, another terminal structure.

It's possible to have a leading diagonal triangle decline in SPX and the Dow.  See the red count in Chart 1.  However,  a new high in NDX on September 9th casts doubt on this interpretation. 

Market Timing Update (9/12/14)

[150pm] SPX update-
wave four (green), LDT (red) or 1s2s (blue). See chart.

[810am] ES update-
Near term tracking counts.