MTU Weekend Ed. - Overthrow, 2014 (2/14/14 close)

The past week’s advance in stocks likely confirms that SP500 is on its way to a potential March/April top, as speculated in It’s TIME (1/24/14). See Chart 1.

The proposed top serves an overthrow not only to the diagonal count in Chart 1, but also with respect to trend line resistances at various degrees. As a preview, Chart 2 and Chart 3 illustrate.

Near term, one can count a five-wave advance since the correction low in February (Chart 4), that is (nearly) complete (Chart 5). Next Tuesday morning offers a time window for a potential pullback. Let’s see if the market takes it.

On a near term pullback, potential supports are around 1811 (SMA50), 1802 and 1789. See Chart 6.

Market Timing Update (2/14/14)

[1015am] SPX update -
potential small-degree extension, see chart and yesterday's EOD update.

Market Timing Update (1/13/14)

[EOD] Stocks -
One can count a five-wave advance from the February low (Chart 1). Chart 2 also counts a potential five-wave advance from today's low (Chart 2). - assuming no extension.

As mentioned in the 1125am update, a retest of the MA50 area, the red, green, gray lines appears likely (Chart below).

[1125am] SPX update -
SPX is around "head" area. A retest of MA50, the red, green, gray lines appears likely. See chart.

Market Timing Update (2/12/14)

[1240pm] SPX/NDX update -
NDX makes a new recovery high. See charts.

Market Timing Update (2/11/14)

[EOD] Stocks -
SPX closed above MA50 from below.

[720am] ES/NQ update -
ES is at its MA50 and NQ is approaching a higher high (min requirements satisfied for an orthodox high from a bearish bias).

Market Timing Update (2/10/14)

[805am] ES update -
Area of interest - MA50D. See charts.

MTU Weekend Ed. - Short Term Update (2/7/14 close)

The 3.45% rise from the February low of 1737.92 in SP500 signaled the end of a three-week decline since its mid-January nominal high (1850.84). Friday’s high of 1798.03 has recovered 50%+ of the 113-point sell-off. SP500 is now approaching its 50-day SMA at 1809 from below (Chart 1).

As discussed in It’s TIME (1/24/14) and Monthly Outlook Update (1/31/14), we continue to track a January market top or a top in the March/April time frame. See Chart 2.

Odds continue to favor a top in the March/April time frame. Wave structures of the 10Y Treasury yield appear to offer support. Note that the initial rally has been moderate amid stock market weakness. Now, yields are poised to move higher for the near term (Chart 3).