Market Timing Update (1/9/13)

[EOD] Stocks -

SPX has traced out a five-wave decline from today's high, but it is unconfirmed by other indexes. See annotations on the chart.


[115pm] SPX update -
Tracking counts.


[640am] ES update -

Market Timing Update (1/8/13)

[EOD] Stocks -
We have 7 waves up from pullback low which remains corrective until proved otherwise (Chart 1). Chart 2 updates the larger counts.


[1150am] SPX udpate -
Larger and squiggle counts. See charts.


[845am] ES udpate -
Squiggle counts, see chart.

Market Timing Update (1/7/13)

[EOD] Stocks -
Stocks may have been retracing of the recent relief rally. Chart 1 updates near term tracking counts and Chart 2 offers several squiggle counts. See Cliff Low (1/4/13) for discussions.


[810am] ES update -
Tracking counts for a five-up from the cliff low. See chart.

MTU Weekend Ed. - Cliff Low (1/4/13 Close)

For some time, we have been labeling the November 2012 low (1343.35 in SP500) as the start of the final stretch of the Hope Rally in stocks (Chart 1, point 6 to point 7).  The sell-off in December in reaction to "fiscal cliff" anxiety did prove to be just a pullback as we have predicted.  Over the past week, stocks have enjoyed a strong relief rally on the heels of a fiscal-cliff "deal."  


Now, the "fiscal cliff low" (the December 2012 low of 1398.11 in SP500) has the potential to confirm the end of the Hope Rally when breached. In the less likely but certainly fitting case that the final stretch morphs into a wedge/EDT, we still have to rely on the November 2012 low initially before we are able to "tighten stops" later on.  Chart 2 shows the likely structure of this decade-plus bear market and the downside potential for its final decline. 


Under this interpretation, our job is to "simply" track the upswing and monitor the logical end points for its wave structure.  To this end, Chart 3 offers top tracking counts on SPX and Chart 4 updates a potential "fractal" in VIX discussed in the daily update on 12/31/12.

Market Timing Update (1/4/13)

[EOD] Stocks -
SPX crawling along channel resistance, potentially wedging. See chart.

[125pm] VIX update -
MTU on 12/31/12 - "Chart 2 highlights a potential "fractal" in VIX for it to complete the proposed C-down."  Here's an updated chart.

Market Timing Update (1/3/12)

[2pm] SPX update -
SPX bounced off prior neckline (Chart 1, green), now facing potential resistance around the Hope Rally trendline (Chart 1, red) as well as near term channel resistance (Chart 2).



[845am] ES update -
Tracking counts from the cliff low. See chart. See yesterday's EOD update for larger counts.

Market Timing Update (1/2/13)

[EOD] Stocks -
The fiscal cliff high was taken out with the opening gap and is now behind us. We now have a cliff low to work with.
Chart 1 updates the larger count, with the pending high as (blue) [i]-up of 3-up or C[up]
(red) A-up of (Y)-up
Chart 2 tracks the squiggles.


[935am] SPX update -
Larger count and squiggles.