Market Timing Update (10/16/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
see 2nd chart below, updated squiggles.
[2pm] SPX squiggles -
Decent stylized waves so far, see chart.


[1130am] SPX update -
SPX squiggles (Chart 1) and ES potentially wedging (Chart 2).






[810am] ES update -
We likely have a proper five-up from the nominal low in ES. The retrace is approaching the 0.618Fib mark. See chart.

Market Timing Update (10/15/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
A nicely formed 5-up off the 50-day SMA (Chart 1). See Correction approaching its end (10/12/12) for discussions.


[905am] ES update -
With the overnight low, we now have a nicely formed flat in ES.

MTU Weekend Ed. - Correction approaching its end (10/12/12)

In 3-up OR C-down (10/5/12), we observed that “The debate at the moment is whether the pullback from the September high was over or is extending. The direction in which the market breaks out of its Oct 2-5 range (1439.01-1470.96 in SPX) likely determines the relative odds.”

Subsequently, SPX has breached 1439.01 first. The proposed wave C-down has now tested the 50-day moving average (currently at 1428.38) and a short term lower channel line. SPX closed the week at 1428.59, above its 50-day SMA. Positive divergence can be seen on the 30- and 60-minute charts. See Chart 1. Relative strength can also be seen in the advance-decline statistics associated with the current SP500 constituents (Chart 2).



primary count

On balance, our primary assessment is that the 4-week correction since the September high is now approaching its end. As discussed before, the best candidate this pullback is a 4th wave with its degree to be determined (Chart 3, blue 4 or green [iv] of 3). Note that the current decline has also tested the lower channel lines projected for the proposed 4th waves.

Technical note - Can the proposed wave C extend? Yes.  It's possible that the current low is (b)-down of [ii]-up of C-down, for example, with bulk of C-down to come.  The anticipated rebound will help establish important pivots.  

bearish alternative
If point 5-up of our Hope Rally model did peak at the September high, the pending low is likely the first three-legged pullback of point 6-down (i.e. wave W of point 6-down) (Chart 3, red X). A wave X rebound is expected.

Market Timing Update (10/12/12)

[1140am] INDU update -
Chart 1 updates the squiggle count. Chart 2 shows a potential flat since the Sept high approaching its end.


[910am] ES update -
A potential bullish 5-up and 3-down in ES from the overnight low on Oct 10th - which is lower than the low in SPX cash.

Market Timing Update (10/11/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
Stocks again wedged into the close, likely a small degree 5th wave. SPX did not make a lower low, potentially offering positive divergence. See charts.


[1015am] INDU update -
a follow up on yesterday's EOD update, see charts.

Market Timing Update (10/10/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
Stocks wedged into the close and a rebound is likely next, either as [iv] of C-down (blue) or the start of a fresh upswing 5th wave(green) or X wave (red). The wave structure in ES is also informative. See charts.


[210pm] updated INDU squiggles -

[150pm] INDU squiggles -
blue primary - [iv]-up and[v]-down are still missing.
green alt - Double three correction since the Sept high is approaching its end. Or flat correction since the Sept high is approaching its end with C-down ending.
See the 2nd chart below.
[1030am] INDU update -
It's prudent to leave room for a larger triangle if no lower low is made.


[820am] ES update -

Market Timing Update (10/9/12)

[EOD] Stocks -

A larger zigzag decline from the recent high. While it is possible to count a five-down from the high, it likely remains an alternative count. NDX made a lower low, would the broader market follow with a small-degree 5th wave down?
[1105am] INDU / NDX update -
Approaching potential near term support. The lower low in NDX offers a hint that the correction since the Sept high is likely still in progress, potentially sideways. See chart


[920am] ES update -