Market Timing Update (8/8/12)

[EOD] Stocks-
SPX appears to be testing potential new support (Chart 1, green lines). Thus, in conjunction of the wave development, a triangle watch is warranted (Chart 2, blue and green lines ).


[105pm] SPX update -
Triangle watch (blue)













[840am] ES update -
Topped/topping (red) or bullish extension (blue)

Market Timing Update (8/7/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
Potential 5th wave wedge, likely incomplete.


[1005am] SPX squiggles -












[740am] ES update -
The 5th wave off the Aug 2nd low is likely in progress. The more bullish alternative is wave 2-down of an extended bull run. See chart.

Market Timing Update (8/6/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
See the 2nd chart below for updated tracking counts. See Moment of Truth (8/3/12) for additional discussion.

 [1240pm] SPX squiggles -
Small degree 5th wave likely done unless it extends.


[745am] ES update -

MTU Weekend Ed. - Moment of Truth (8/3/12 Close)

In Breaking(7/27/12), we opined that "the 2012 range (about 1270 to 1420 in SP500) is now most likely to be breached next - according to the development of the wave structure since the early June low. "

Now, a week later, despite the sharp downswing and equally sharp upswing during the week, our analysis and conclusion remain applicable. Chart 1 updates the top bullish and bearish counts. Please see last week's discussion for additional detail.

The moment of truth, whether the market can make a new recovery high or face an immediate trend change to the downside, is upon us. The squiggle count in Chart 2 suggests additional upside from a small-degree 5th wave of the current surge. However, by virtual of a higher high already in place, the minimum requirement for a top has been met if the bearish count is on track.



Notable weakness exists behind the current surge, which was also highlighted in Breaking(7/27/12). Junior indexes still lag the senior indexes, and the negative divergence in the advance/decline line associated with SP500 index constituents has only become more pronounced (Chart 3).

Unless the market profile turns more favorable soon,  odds appear to favor pending weakness, likely associated with the bearish count as highlighted, with a potential twist -
(1) If no new recovery high is made, the advance since early June could be a B-wave or 2-wave.
(2) If a recovery high is made, the advance since early June could be a B-wave of an expanded flat or a triangle.

Market Timing Update (8/3/12)

[1250pm] SPX update -
Larger and squiggle count.


[8am] ES update -
Larger counts on ES and NQ in Chart 1 and Chart 2. Note that NQ is leading the rebound at the moment. Squiggle count on ES in Chart 3.

Market Timing Update (8/2/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
As discussed at yesterday's EOD update, primary count remains a wave (b)-down or wave [ii]-down (Chart 1, gray or blue).
The assumption makes today's low most likely a key pivot, as Chart 2 illustrates. It's interesting that today's low in SPX took place at the fib-0.618 retrace.


[1220pm] SPX update -
Larger count update. see 2nd chart below.

[935am] SPX update -


[755am] ES update -
For the near term, ABC pullback done, or C-down to come, or double-three. See the 2nd chart.

Market Timing Update (8/1/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
Primary count is a [b] wave (possibly a [ii] wave) finding its completion (Chart 1 red+green). These correspond to the gray count in Chart 2.
A small-degree 4th wave is a possibility, but to a lesser extent (Chart 1, blue).



[740am] ES update -
1st of the month. FOMC.
Larger count and squiggle count in ES. See charts.