Since its ATH, SPX has likely seen 3 waves down and 3 waves up so far.
A potential base channel since the Oct 2022 low is now well defined. SPX is currently probing this base channel high.
If the advance since Oct 2022 is indeed an impulse, SPX should rise comfortably above this base channel.
If the advance is corrective, the base channel should be a formidable resistance.
If this potential large wave FOUR in SPX is still in progress, it may be a triangle with its B wave around the current high, or a WXY structure with W at the May 2022 low and X around the current high.
The current high is at upper line of a (potential base-) channel from the Oct 2022 low. A more meaningful reaction is likely.
SPX is likely to react at the upper channel line (Chart 1) or consolidate towards a lesser-degree lower channel line (Chart 2).
SPX is up 15.91% year to date (excluding dividends). It's possible to view the Dow and SPX being aligned again (not the only scenario), sharing an ABC-down-ABC-up structure from the 2022 ATH, SPX and INDU (Chart 3).
