MTU Weekend Ed - Rebound (6/24/22)

The potential wave four-down likely has seen its low (Chart 1), but price has not rebounded enough to exclude a bull-trapping ending diagonal (Chart 2 red). Price actions next week will clarify. 

MTU Weekend Ed - Tracking a Potential Fourth Wave (6/17/22 close)

Tracking a potential fourth wave (Chart 1), while cognizant of the risk of a nested wave ones and wave twos down (currently in wave three!)

This potential fourth wave is likely tracing out a double zigzag (Chart 2)

The final zag can be counted as complete (Chart 3 blue) but would look better in form with a lower low (Chart 3 red). 

MTU Weekend Ed - Retesting + Tracking Counts (6/10/22 close)

Chart 1 - From the rebound high (blue (1)) or a potential orthodox high (grey (A)),  we have a three-wave deep retrace so far and a retest of the May low in SPX.

Chart 2 - 

If the May low survives, the retest is likely (blue) B/2 of a potential wave five of Chart 3. 

If the May low is breached, it is consistent with the bull-trap scenario discussed 2 weeks ago, as either the final zigzag of a contracting LDT (red C and more bearish for the rest of the year) or the final green C of a double zigzag from the ATH and a potential wave four of Chart 3. 

Chart 3 - long term structure

MTU Weekend Ed - Short Term Update (6/3/22 close)

 See previous posts for commentary.