Weekend Update - 11-Week Channel Broken (1/29/21 close)

SPX breached an 11-week channel (discussed previously) and closed solidly below but on its rising SMA50 and the long-term gray line which connects prior peaks (Chart 1).  

The rally since the past March could be complete as a triple zigzag (Chart 1), with (Z) about 50 index points longer than (Y) which is not ideal. 

If there is one more upswing (Chart 2 discussed previously),  SPX is likely to overlap the green A at 3645.99 first. 

Short term,  SPX kissed the underside of an EDT and fell (Chart 3).  On Friday, a small degree up wave kissed the underside of the gray line and fell.  

 

 

Thursday Update (1/28/21)

 Kissing the underside of the prior potential EDT and potential reversal?

Wednesday Update

 SPX and INDU closed below the channel but NDX did not.  INDU also touched its SMA50.  Additional follow-through is necessary.  

 Watch the gray lines and SMA50 in SPX (in the daily charts below).

 

 

Monday Update (1/25/21)

SPX filled a recent gap and continued to respect the channel.  A couple of potential diagonal triangles have surfaced.

 

Weekend Ed. - Same Channel (1/22/21 close)

 

Weekend Ed - Channel (1/15/21 close)

SPX is now probing the lower band of a narrow but steady upward channel that has formed over the past two months, as well as the line connecting the Feb2019 and Sep2019 highs - the gray line.  

Odds appear to favor an eventual breach of this channel to the downside and the current pullback has its potential to do so. 

If so, monitor whether it is  a larger degree correction (Chart 1, 2 blue) or a small degree pullback (Chart 2 green) to probe the 50 DMA. 

Weekend Ed. - Blowoff, and potential EDT (1/8/21 close)

With an impress blowoff first week of new year trading, SPX is now probing the upper boundary of a two-month long "cigarette".

We have been tracking the rally since March as a (W)(Y)(Z) structure (Chart 2), Friday's rally allowed us to track a simple zigzag (A)(B)(C), with (C) being an expanding diagonal triangle. 

The minimum price and time requirements have now been met as of Friday.  

Note that for the potential expanding diagonal triangle (C)-up,

A-up  is 466.49 points and 16 or 17 days. 

C-up is  588.37 points and 46 or 47 days

E-up is 592.75 points and 47 or 48 days and counting. 

 

 

 

 

 

Thursday Update (1/7/21)

 SPX runs up to the upper boundary of the "cigarette" - similar profiles in INDU and NDX.

 

 

Wednesday Update (1/6/21)

[EOD] - 

Reaction at the gray line.  Looks like a small-degree five-down, pending morphing if it wishes to be.

[1250PM NYSE] - 

Cash makes another ATH, futures is very close.  Now tracking the blue C to wrap up the blue (Z).

 

 

 

[1030AM NYSE] - 

SPX cash is now at the upper gray line.  If the green C is playing out, the following chart shows a potential five-down and three-up.  Otherwise, monitoring the blue C. 

 

Tuesday Update (1/5/21)

Watching the upper gray line. 

Monday Update - First Trading Session of the Year (1/4/21)

 

MTU Weekend Ed. - 2021 Outlook

 Stocks - Probing the upper channel line.  A reaction is likely.

Bonds - Yields probing the lower channel line. A reaction is likely. 

USD - Index has already broken above the trend line, already retested once. Second retest in progress or or building a base?  

Gold - [b]-up of B-down looks more likely than C-up.

Oil -  A retrace of the rebound looks probable based on the wave structure and the dollar profile.