MTU Month-End Ed - High (part 2) (2/28/20 close)

We observed last week, we observed that the pattern from the October low looked complete, but
the structure of the initial 2% of the selloff  presents much ambiguity regarding whether to track the decline as an impulse or a corrective wave. (See High (2/21/20) )

This week's remarkable selloff confirms the high (Chart 1) but leaves us similar ambiguity at a larger degree (Chart 2 Red_impulse  and Chart 2 Blue_corrective). In the case of an impulse, a fresh low next week would look better to conclude waev 1-down.  If the rebound continues, the sell-off may be wave W-down.

Friday Update (2/28/20)

[EOD Update]
Still tracking and still going...

[Intraday Update - 12PM EST]
Minor tweak to yesterday's squiggle tracking count.  The question is whether the decline so far is a single large impulse ave down or two legs down.  Here is a tracking count on a single large impulse wave down on SPX cash  (which lacks the extra volatility/waves present in ES).

The potential wave [4] invalidates at overlap with wave [1].  Potential triangle to alternate with [2].  Potential [5] is limited in size  as  [1] has extended.

Thursday Update (2/27/20)

Squiggle tracking continues. The question is whether the decline so far is a single large impulse ave down or two legs down.  Here is a tracking count on a single large impulse wave down (good till 2921.62) on SPX cash  (which lacks the extra volatility/waves present in ES).

Wednesday Update (2/27/20)

Squiggle tracking continues

Eying the SMA200 on the daily?

Probing the blue line on the weekly ( similar to the now breached red line on the daily )

Tuesday Update (2/25/20)

[EOD update] SPX has only minor and short-lived reaction at the red line. Extended fifth of the fifth on the way down. Notably, the Dow has closed below its 200 SMA, and overlapped its Sep 2019 high (3021.99 equivalent in SPX).

[Intraday update - 11am EST] As a follow up on yesterday's update - The drop from ATH could be counted as an impulse with an extended fifth wave. Some reaction at the red line looks probable. Note the near term positive divergence.

Monday Update (2/24/20)

[Intraday update - 145pm EST]
SPX cash missed its SMA50 with the gap down at the open.  Currently, some reaction at the red line looks probable.  The drop from ATH could be counted as an impulse with an extended fifth wave.

MTU Weekend Ed. - High (2/21/20 close)

Last week, we commented that ES is wedging. Now ES has dropped 2% over two days from its recent high.  Whether we track the advance since the October low as an ABC or a WYZ, the wave proportions appear good enough to conclude the pattern.  See Chart 1 and Chart 2 below.

The structure of the decline from ATH, however, presents much ambiguity.  See Chart 3 for a number of tracking counts.

Chart 4 updates the daily chart on SPX.

MTU Weekend Ed - Wedging (2/14/20 close)

MTU Weekend Ed. - (2/7/20 close)

The new ATH in SPX requires some adjustments in tracking counts. The following scenarios (Chart 1 ABC and Chart 2 Triple-Three) preserves the larger structure (Chart 3).  See previous posts for context.