Friday, January 6, 2017

MTU Weekend Ed. - Breakout (1/6/17 close)

SP500 broke above its December 2016 high during Friday's trading session but is unable to close above it. Interestingly, this is the 3rd (potential) breakout since the 2015 high, with each consolidation taking less time (Chart 1). This up candle, if it became the start of a true breakout, is thus at a much smaller degree. Therefore, with December's pullback being just three weeks, it is likely that the post-election rally ends with this small degree advance. A multi-month pullback is likely to follow.

Chart 2 presents our tracking counts on the advance since the February 2016 low. All scenarios highlighted before, each represented by a different color, are still on the table.




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