Friday, February 5, 2016

MTU Weekend Ed. - Trendline Reactions and Retests (2/5/16)

To some extent, many U.S. stock indexes have spent the past two weeks retesting or reacting to the Aug/Sep trend line (Chart 1 and Chart 2). The retests and reactions are typical to an important "line in the sand" until we have some resolution.



Chart 3 presents price actions in SPX and key tracking counts with interesting implications.  And Chart 4 presents small-degree tracking in more detail.


On the bearish side, a potential head-and-shoulders pattern is developing with Friday's selloff as the right shoulder testing the neckline. If this H&S pattern plays out fully, the projected target is around 1795 which would be a retest of the January low and can be counted as the red wave v.  It should be noted that the decline from 1947.20 (red iv) is so far a zigzag. This implies that the red wave v is likely an extended wave or 1947.20 is not red wave iv or is not where red wave iv ends. It is interesting to note  that wave v/i equality would suggest a failed red wave v where January's low holds.


On the bullish side,  the crash to the January low may have already completed  a five-wave decline from the November (or December) high (Chart 3-green and Chart 4-green).   Furthermore, Friday's selloff could be wave E of a bullish expanded triangle wave B (Chart 5), or wave [C] of a zigzag pullback from 1947.20 in Chart 6-gray (either to complete wave D of a bearish triangle in Chart 4-pink or wave 2/B of a bullish upswing in Chart 4-green).

On balance, odds appear to favor the near term bullish scenarios - SPX appears likely to deliver a low Monday morning.

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