Wednesday, October 9, 2013

Market Timing Update (10/9/13)

[EOD] Stocks -
The Dow broke its late August low. While other indexes can diverge from the Dow, it's prudent and potentially necessary to allow for adjustments to near term bullish counts. See Chart 1 and Chart 2. (The bearish count with a top already in place is more straight-forward.)

On the squiggle level, the rebound from today's low can be counted as a five (Chart 3). The larger ABC structure could be counted as complete, with allowance of a retest of the low or a minor breach (Chart 4).  Price actions in the next few days will shed light on whether the larger structure is a completed three, a developing larger double three, or a series of 1s and 2s down.

[1130 am] SPX/ES -
The Dow broke its late August low and SPX is holding on. ABC is likely complete or nearly so. Moment of truth ahead as to ABC or a series of 1s/2s (or double three). See charts.

[815 am] ES update -
Day 9. Fed chair nomination day.