Tuesday, October 8, 2013

Market Timing Update (10/8/13)

[EOD] Stocks -
Going back to basics, one observes a 7-wave decline based on lower lows (and lower highs) in SPX and ES. In addition, the decline has channeled well so far. Thus, odds remain favorable for recent weakness in stocks being corrective. See charts.
With a bit of speculation, the pending low might be the overthrow of a skewed triangle dating back to the May peak - see the ES chart and this chart and Shutdown(10/4/13).

[1115am] SPX/ES update -
At the moment,
ES counts as an EDT within EDT at the green line 1, or the blue ABC-ABC.
SPX counts as ABC or 1-down.

[810am] ES update -
Day 8. Q3 earnings after market close.
A slight lower low in the ES overnight satisfies the minimum requirement of the proposed A-B(triangle)-C(EDT) structure (Chart 2, blue AB and green C). If so, expect a budget deal.
Other possibilities remain, include the blue ABC-X-EDT and the red bearish triangle if one overlooks the slight lower wave d low.