Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Market Timing Update (10/16/13)

[EOD] Stocks -
Tracking the 11th-hour-deal-driven rally as either a new leg up (Chart, blue) or an extended small-degree 5th wave (Chart, red). While odds favor a new high in SP500, the likelihood of the market selling the news of an actual deal is also non-negligible.
[1145am] SPX update -

[805am] ES update -
Day 16. Full moon approaching. Tracking three counts in ES from the recent low. See chart.

[blue] Expect a post triangle thrust up, potentially fueled by a (partial) resolution of funding and debt ceiling deals. 20 to 40 points potential.

[green] Expect a flat like retrace. Wave(C)-down is likely in progress.

[red] A failed/truncated impulse was complete at the recent high. LD-1 down yesterday and 2-up overnight.