Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Market Timing Update (4/16/13)

[EOD] Stocks -
 Today's rebound resulted in a notable overlap in NDX, which also presented a visual five-wave advance from the low (Chart 1). Barring a failed 5th or C, there is likely additional upside potential.
The same can be said about SPX (Chart 2), although there's no overlap. Given the overlapping rebound in the Dow, we should consider
[1] from a bullish perspective, the prospects of a series of 1s and 2s (Chart 2, blue alt) or an initial impulse up (and an LD in INDU)
[2] from a bearish perspective, the prospects of a double three (Chart 2, red).

Chart 3 updates the larger tracking counts.

[1145am] SPX update -
If the rebound is a small degree 4th wave (green in chart 2), it likely ends around current levels. Otherwise a deeper retrace or a fresh upswing is likely.

[820am] ES update -