Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Market Timing Update (12/5/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
As discussed in the 1155am entry, today's low satisfies the minimum requirement of a retrace, but odds appear to favor at least one more lower low. Thus, on the near term bearish side, the top candidates:
[1] expect wave (c)-down of a zigzag type structure (Chart 1-SPX blue and Chart 2-ES black)
[2] an ascending triangle type consolidation (Chart 1-SPX green and Chart 2-ES red) requiring today's low to hold.

[1155am] SPX/ES update -
Observations - The minimum requirement for a retrace is met on ES (Chart 1 to the right). SP500 cash index presents potential for another leg down (Chart 2) - not required but probable, suggesting the rebound from today's low as a B/2-wave (chart 3).

[630am] ES update -
ES is attempting to regain prior bullish trendline (Chart 1). Top tracking counts are shown in Chart 2. The immediately bullish count (green) assumes a 1/2/[i]/[ii] setup. The black and red counts suggest at least one more near term lower low.