SP500 is now approaching key resistance levels. A retest of the low or consolidation is likely next. Potential resistance includes [1] the prior “neckline” around Friday’s high (Chart 1) [2] the Sep-to-Nov downtrend average around 1425 and [3] the 50-day moving average around 1426.
From a wave count perspective, a five-wave advance from the low is approaching its end (Chart 2, blue). This potential five-wave advance shows up across leading indexes, such as SPX, INDU, NDX and Transports. If so, a pullback against this initial advance is likely next.
On a separate note, VIX has cheapened significantly on a relative basis due to an increase in realized volatility in recent weeks as well as a decline in implied volatility.
It's also prudent to note the possibility of an uninterrupted advance for the time being.
As discussed in Post Election Plunge (11/9/12), "the price structure of the recent sell-off resembles that of a larger correction in 2011". If history rhymes, a correction may not be due before SPX clears both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and all the way to point #6 of the proposed "fractal". See Chart 3.
Moreover, ES is already over its neckline resistance (Chart 4).
