Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Market Timing Update (8/21/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
The decline from today's high can be counted as a zigzag (with A roughly equal to C, Chart 1-blue) or a five-down (with an extended 5th wave, Chart 1-red).

The market found trend-line support going into the close (Chart 2, green and red lines).

Subjectively speaking, today's decline appears to be a 4th wave of some sort - see tracking counts below - until additional bearish development materializes. 

Confirmation is needed for the following top tracking counts (Chart 2).
[green] [iii] of 3 or [c] is extending. Today's sell-off is (iv)-down of [iii] of 3 up.
[blue] A larger wave 4 pullback has started.
[red] An ABC rebound since the June low is complete at today's high.

It should be noted that on a squiggle level, the bearish topping count can accommodate one more moderate high (Chart 3 to the right).

 [8am] ES update -
Chart 1 shows the 3 large wave up from the June low to date. Chart 2 Shows a small degree 4th wave potentially ended on or about Aug 10th. Chart 3 counts the squiggles since the black wave (4) in Chart 2, suggesting wave (5) is approaching the end of 3 of (5) or (5) itself.