Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Market Timing Update (5/4/11)

[EOD] Stocks -
Unless the rebound from today's low is a (i)/(ii)/i/ii setup, the decline from the top as well as the rebound from the low both appear to be threes (Chart 1, blue).

That assessment suggests room for additional sell-off (e.g. a double zigzag) to potentially fill the 6.5-point upward gap, OR a sideways triangle to consume time, ONCE the rebound is complete. Odds favor more downside potential as a fourth wave correction does not fit the structure of several indexes.

Regarding lower probability counts:
On the more bearish side, the decline to date could be a (i)/(ii)/i/ii (Chart 1, red).

On the more bullish side, the low could be in at the end of the first zigzag if the rebound from today's low is not corrective.

[1015am] Count update (SPX, ES) -
Perhaps a chance to partially fill the recent giant upward gap.

[740am] Overnight update (ES) -