Monday, April 25, 2011

Market Timing Update (4/25/11)

[830pm] EURUSD -
Here is an updated count on USDEUR. Please see DX and EURUSD, Potential x Waves too (4/21/11 Close) for a detailed discussion.

If the advance in EUR vs USD from the 2010 low is a zigzag (in hindsight), there should be one more down-up sequence before EUR tops. (alt Blue Count) If this is the case, the proposed wave [iv] is likely to retrace to around the 4/18/2011 level, implying that the USD index is likely to rebound to around the 75/76 area before a final decline.

If the advance in EUR vs USD from the 2010 low is a double three (ABC-X-ABC), EUR likely has topped. (primary Blue Count)

The ultra bullish count is indicated by the green labels.

[EOD] Stocks -
The advance since the April 18th low is either complete (red) or requires the final touch of a small degree 5th wave (Chart 1).

Note that one can count this morning's decline from the nominal high as five down in the cash indexes (SPX as well as INDU), but the decline from the overnight high in ES is a three at the moment (Chart 2).

The current top is either the bullish (i)-up of [iii]-up of 5-up, OR the semi bearish [x]-up of a large incomplete correction since the February high. Please see Decision Point (4/21/11) for a detailed discussion.

Note that Futures (ES) did make a fresh high (Chart 3). So it's possible that a zigzag wave [x] (or [b]) is complete or nearly so (if the market is still in a small degree 4th wave today as indicated in Chart 1 above).

[925am] Overnight update (ES) -