Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Market Timing Update (5/26/15)

[9am] ES update -
ES is probing the neck line once again. See charts.


Saturday, May 23, 2015

MTU Weekend Ed - Dow Theory Nonconfirmation (5/22/15 close)

... draft in progress, subject to change ...

The recent non-confirmation between the Dow and the Transports caught market participants’ attention. Other topping signs may also be developing, such as another dive in the VIX, negative price-indicator divergences, and a confluence of price-and-time resistance. However, a (near term) bullish case can still be made.

Transports
The decline since the 2014 high in Transports appears corrective and potentially a downward flat (Chart 1). Transports may have been pulling back in a fourth wave, correcting the advance since late 2012 (Chart 2).


Nasdaq
At its recent high, the Nasdaq Composite is only 0.25% shy of its Y2K high (Chart 3). While the Y2K could serve as a long term resistance level, odds appear to favor continued upward probing of the Y2K high, which is about 25bp away.

In addition, the 1.618 fib-extension of the 2007/2009 crash is at 5443.5, which is less than 6.5% away. See Chart 3.

Seasonality
The Decennial Cycle and the Presidential Cycle (in particular) are not bearish for the rest of May. See Chart 4 and Chart 5.


SP500


Friday, May 22, 2015

Market Timing Update (5/22/15)

[EOD] Stocks -
[910am] ES update -
ES continues to probe potential support levels. Potential event-driven (CPI) wave e of a bullish 4th wave triangle as marked by the green lines. See chart.


Thursday, May 21, 2015

Market Timing Update (5/21/15)

[EOD] Stocks -
SPX got very close to a new high today but did not deliver. Tracking a potential expanding triangle or complex combo wave 4 on the bullish side or a top yesterday on the bearish side. See chart.


[850am] ES update -
ES is probing the neckline support following an overthrow of the potential red EDT. The IHS target offers an overthrow of the potential black EDT. See Charts.


Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Market Timing Update (5/20/15)

[EOD] Stocks -
This week offers a window of opportunity for a top if the market wants to. See charts.

[1015am] SPX update -
ABC down from ATH so far. See charts for tracking counts, lines and squiggles.

[735am] ES update -
ES overnight kiss of the lower base channel line. See chart.


Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Market Timing Update (5/19/15)

[EOD] Stocks -
[1205pm] SPX update -
Tracking counts, lines, and squiggles. See charts.

[720am] ES update -
ES made a new record high overnight. Three waves off the May low is completing, as well as a potential EDT overthrow. If it is a five wave, the IHS presents a reasonable near term target for a larger EDT overthrow. See charts.


Monday, May 18, 2015

Market Timing Update (5/18/15)

[EOD] Stocks -
New high on unimpressive price action. Today's high satisfied the minimum requirement of the blue, red and gray counts in Chart 1. See Variations (5/15/15) for discussions. Chart 2 tracks the squiggles in today's advance.

[1120am] SPX update -
Counts, lines, and squiggles. See charts.

[725am] ES update -
ES has been probing the neck line. See chart.