Thursday, September 29, 2016

Market Timing Update (9/29/16)

[230pm] SPX update-
Interesting possibility (one of the scenarios) -
If the Sep 27th low holds, today's low may conclude a terminal bullish triangle (the 2nd green C in Chart) and thus mark the end of the pullback from the Aug high. Quite fitting on the heels of the DB news.
If the Sep 27th low is breached but the early Sep low holds, the proposed bullish terminal triangle is then stretching in time (the 3rd green C in chart).
See chart.
[110pm] SPX update-
Short term bull & bear squiggles. See chart.
[1220pm] SPX update-
Bull & Bear Tracking. See chart.

Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Market Timing Update (9/28/16)

[235pm] SPX update-
A three-wave push has sent SPX back inside the ever-narrowing blue-line res/support range. See charts.

[1040am] SPX update-
Reactions at the blue line. See charts for squiggles and tracking.

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Market Timing Update (9/27/16)

[EOD] Stocks -
SPX closed right under the blue line resistance (Chart 1), with two unfilled overhead gaps (Chart 2).

Monday, September 26, 2016

Market Timing Update (9/26/16)

[210pm] SPX update -
See chart for pre-debate squiggles. See Weekly Commentary for bigger picture discussion.

Sunday, September 25, 2016

MTU Weekend Ed. - Key Juncture (9/23/16 close)

SPX has successfully retested the 2015/2016 breakout area, yet to make a new all-time high and is at potential short term resistance (Chart 1). Meanwhile, NDX has made fresh all-time highs and has satisfied the minimum requirement of a top (Chart 2 and Chart 3) barring extension (Chart 3 green text).

One way to reconcile the two is to note that SPX is at an interesting juncture with respect to both the bullish and bearish scenarios (Chart 4).

[Bullish Scenario-Green] The pullback from the August high ended mid- or late-September as marked. Friday's pullback is likely a small degree 2nd wave (or 4th wave). A gap open above the resistance will not be surprising if a small degree 3rd wave up is next.

[Bearish Scenario-Blue] The mid- or late-September low marked the first ABC-decline from the August high in SPX. Wave X or Wave D has ended at this past week's high if we count from the mid-September low. Wave X has one more advance to complete if we count from the late September low. The coming decline can be viewed as wave C-down of a flat from the August high. If so, the decline can potentially be as significant as the August 2015 and January 2016 sell-off.

Key support in SPX is currently around 2080 and key resistance is around 2165.

Friday, September 23, 2016

Market Timing Update (9/23/16)

[245pm] SPX update-
This is an interesting squeeze on SPX by the blue lines (Chart 1).

Thursday, September 22, 2016

Market Timing Update (9/22/16)

[1020am] NDX update -
New highs in NDX in recent days. Tracking counts since the Feb low. See charts.

[750am] ES update -
Bull/Bear tracking from the ATH. See chart.