Saturday, August 27, 2016

MTU Weekend Ed. - Twist or Turn (8/26/16 close)

... draft in progress, subject to change ...

Blue count = twist; Red count = turn; See Chart 1

more later ...


Thursday, August 25, 2016

Market Timing Update (8/25/16)

[EOD] Stocks -
Today's candle is sandwiched between the gray line resistance and the green line support (Chart 1), understandable before Yellen's speech tomorrow. Chart 2 tracks the squiggles from the recent high.



Wednesday, August 24, 2016

Market Timing Update (8/24/16)

[EOD] Stocks-
A first break of the gray EDT line (Chart 1) on a five wave decline (Chart 2). Trend reversal (with respect to June low or Feb low) or the flat (ii) flat? We'll likely know by the end of the week. As discussed in recent days, a drop below 2147.58 invalidates the blue (ii) and targets the MA50 (around 2140)

[225pm] SPX update -
A five-wave decline from yesterday's high (Chart 1). Chart 2 presents bull and bear options.

[1012am] SPX update -
No follow-through on yesterday's mini-breakout. Now retracing to fill the gap and probe for potential support around the breakout area. See chart.



Tuesday, August 23, 2016

Market Timing Update (8/23/16)

[205pm] SPX update -
ES made an ATH but SPX cash is still fraction away. The potential bullish triangle we discussed yesterday won the day over the potential bearish triangle (Chart 1). Chart 2 tracks the top two scenarios at moment(a) the gray EDT (b) an extension of a small-degree 5th wave (red C, blue 5, green 3).
We observed in August High (8/19/16) that "If the rally continues next week without breaking 2168.5 first, a potential EDT (Chart 1, 2nd red C) is in play. Beyond 2214.73, the latest small-degree 5th wave from 2147.58 is subdividing higher."
Here the market is.



Monday, August 22, 2016

Market Timing Update (8/22/16)

[255pm] SPX update -
Potential small-degree triangles. Blue bearish, green bullish. SPX squiggles from ATH. See chart.

[815am] ES update -
Another probe of the green wedge line in ES. Will it hold? See chart.



Saturday, August 20, 2016

MTU Weekend Ed. - August High (8/19/16 close)

SP500 may already be correcting its upswing from the Brexit low (Chart 1, labels at the 2193.81 high), as the German DAX appears to have completed a five-wave advance (Chart 2). If the rally continues next week without breaking 2168.5 first, a potential EDT (Chart 1, 2nd red C) is in play. Beyond 2214.73, the latest small-degree 5th wave from 2147.58 is subdividing higher.

A retest of the breakout area of 2075 to 2100 looks probable (Chart 3).

Chart 4 refreshes key intermediate-term scenarios we have discussed in recent months. Chart 5 continues to track a potential contracting triangle in the DAX as one companion scenario to SPX (Chart 4 red, expanding triangle).



Friday, August 19, 2016

Market Timing Update (8/19/16)

[945am] SPX update-

[840am] ES update-