Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Market Timing Update (4/23/14)

[EOD] Stocks-
SP500 cash index has been retesting the red line as potential support (Chart 1). The after-hours action in ES appears to suggest a successful retest (Chart 2).



[715 am] ES update-
ES retesting prior resistance. Tracking [i]/[ii]/[iii]-blue and [a]/[b]/[c]-red of an orthodox low mid-April. See charts.


Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Market Timing Update (4/22/14)

[2pm]SPX update-
SP500 broke above the 2nd resistance area(red line), now approaching the 3rd resistance area (purple line), followed by the 4rd resistance area (green line). The advance from the April low has produced two unclosed gaps, one at the 1st resistance area and another at the 2nd resistance area. Transports made a new all-time high today. See charts here and previous updates for additional discussion.


Monday, April 21, 2014

Market Timing Update (4/21/14)

[EOD] Stocks-
Inching towards resistance.
[740am] ES update-


Thursday, April 17, 2014

MTU Weekend Ed. - No bearish confirmation (T+1), but at resistance (4/17/14)

This past week was the first week after the "timed top", the T+1-th week. As we observed in It's TIME(T-0), but at potential support (4/11/14), "we look for a convincing breach of support for bearish confirmation and also entertain the possibility of an immediate new high." and "odds appear to favor a new high, perhaps allow SP500 to complete a potential ending diagonal triangle off the October 2013 low, which is suitable for a top."



 
Price action this past week did not offer a bearish confirmation, leaving room for the ending diagonal triangle which requires a bullish confirmation (Chart 1). In the meantime, we note a few potentially bullish vs bearish technical factors below. 


[bullish] A failed head-and-shoulders pattern (Chart 2). After briefly dipping below the neck line, SP500 rebounded and regained prior range. Such price action is likely bullish and hints at a new high beyond 1920.

[bullish] The advance-decline line on SP500 is now leading the SP500 index, making an all-time high following the recent rebound in stocks (Chart 3). This counts as another hint at a new high.

[bearish] Price is at near term resistance (Chart 2).

[bearish] The sell-off from the nominal high in SP500 may be a (truncated) leading diagonal wave 1/A-down. A wave 2/B rebound could be nearly over (Chart 2, red count).

Let's see now the market delivers.



Market Timing Update (4/17/14)

[715am] ES update-


Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Market Timing Update (4/16/14)

[7am] ES update -
ES regaining prior range and MA50 (Chart 1). A retest of/retrace towards the breakout area appears likely on the squiggles (Chart 2). See charts.


Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Market Timing Update (4/15/14)

[EOD]Stocks-
Stocks are back the the same resistance area. SPX is making a 2nd attempt to regain range. See charts.



[715am] ES update-
ES attempts to regain prior range. See charts.