... draft in progress, subject to change ...
With slightly more than half of 2016 completed, the breakout in SPX in July allows us to track the following three scenarios (Chart 1).
[very bullish - green] A proper impulse wave from the Feb low is developing. Wave 3 is currently in progress and may extend.
[somewhat bullish - blue] A proper impulse wave from the Feb low is completing. Wave 5 is currently maturing (Chart 2). The advance from the Feb low could be just wave 1 of a larger impulse wave or could be the entire upswing.
[very bearish - read] The upswing from the Feb low is actually a three-wave structure. Its wave B is an expanding triangle. The post-triangle thrust, wave C, is maturing (Chart 2).
Friday, July 22, 2016
Thursday, July 21, 2016
Wednesday, July 20, 2016
Tuesday, July 19, 2016
Monday, July 18, 2016
Friday, July 15, 2016
SP500 finally broke out of its 1-year range and closed at new record high (Chart 1). The gappy nature of this breakout suggest either strength or at least near term exhaustion (Chart 2). The prevalence of three-wave structures appears to favor the latter.
Furthermore, the above observation motivates one to keep track of potential intermediate term as well as short term triangles
Potential term triangles (Chart 3).
[green] If the breakout is real, wave -up since the 2009 bottom may be an ending diagonal triangle. The pending high is wave (A) or (C) of the proposed EDT.
[blue] The breakout is wave (B)-up of a triangle, which counts as wave -down since the 2009 bottom.
[red] Wave -down since the 2009 bottom is an expanding triangle. The pending high is its wave(D)-up. Wave (E)-down is next to take out the Feb low.
Potential near term triangles (Chart 4).
[blue] Post-triangle-thrust C-up.
[green] Small-degree expanding triangle [b]-up of B-down.
[red] Terminal expanding triangle C-up.
Posted by Market Timing Update at 9:18 PM