Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Market Timing Update (10/1/14)

[925am] ES upate-
Q4, not QE4. See chart.

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Market Timing Update (9/30/14)

[1025am] SPX update -
Month end.  Tracking counts. See charts. Note a potential small-degree 4th wave bearish triangle or small-degree wave c bullish terminal triangle, discussed yesterday.

Monday, September 29, 2014

Market Timing Update (9/29/14)

[EOD] Stocks-
Squiggles present a number of near term possibilities. See chart. Note that the top "immediately bearish count" is likely a fourth wave triangle (or an LTD decline from the nominal high) in SPX, as outlined in the chart.

[12pm] SPX update-
[705am] ES update-

Sunday, September 28, 2014

MTU Weekend Ed. - Terminal Move 4 (9/26/14)

This past Friday’s low in SP500 likely marked the end of a month-long expanding triangle, one of the top scenarios which we have been tracking. The expanding triangle would count as a wave 4 or wave B off the August low. See Chart 1 red.

While a wave B can accommodate a meaningful wave C advance, a wave 4 suggests a limited upswing. The proposed 5th wave could very well fail as the minimum threshold for a full wave 5 is 2005.04 (Chart 1).

On the bearish side, the run since the 2011 low may have already ended at the September high. It’s possible that stocks have been tracing out a very bearish series of wave 1s and 2s (Chart 1, blue). However, the deep rebound this past Friday after a three-wave decline deserves attention. Secondly, one of our tracking counts on the advance since the 2011 low points to a timed topping window which is approaching, but not yet passed (Chart 2). Thus, it’s a good idea to view the next two weeks as a window where the market can sort things out.

Friday, September 26, 2014

Market Timing Update (9/26/14)

[105pm] SPX update -
tracking counts and squiggles. see charts.

[9am] ES update -
potentially a small-degree 5th wave down to wrap up a zigzag/121/123. See charts.

Thursday, September 25, 2014

Market Timing Update (9/25/14)

[EOD] Stocks -

[1040am] SPX update -
Charts shows tracking counts. Monitoring potential small-degree and a larger-degree expanding triangles in SPX as highlighted in these charts, as well as potential terminal triangle (bearish) in RUT (not shown).

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Market Timing Update (9/24/14)

[EOD] Stocks -

[1120am] SPX update -

[740am] ES update -