Tuesday, September 23, 2014

Market Timing Update (9/23/14)

[1015am] SPX update-

Monday, September 22, 2014

Market Timing Update (9/22/14)

[EOD] Stocks -

[815am] ES/YM/NQ update-
State of retreat across futures - see charts. See weekend commentary for near term tracking scenarios.

Friday, September 19, 2014

MTU Weekend Ed. - Terminal Move 3 (9/19/14)

...draft in progress, subject to change ...

SP500 recovered from its mid-September low smartly and delivered another record high this past week. Based on the squiggles of this move, Friday's high is either the end of an EDT (Chart 1, red) or wave three of an impulse wave (Chart 1, blue). Odds appear to favor the latter (with the exception of a potential B-wave, see discussions below). These possibilities are more conspicuous in the wave structure of NDX.

Depending on whether this past week's move is part of the upswing since the August low, we track several interesting near term scenarios. See Chart 2.

[red] Wave 5 off the August low topped at Friday's high. The August low is likely at risk on the next downswing.

[blue] Wave 5 off the August low is incomplete. Wave [v] of 5 is next, targeting the 2030 area.

[black] Wave 4 off the August low is tracing out a lengthy expanding triangle. Wave [e] pullback is next, which is likely to breach 1980. Wave 5-up that follows could fail as any move above 2005 would satisfy the minimum requirement.

[green] The upswing off the August low is extending. Friday's high is wave B-up of an expanded flat or a triangle consolidation before a fresh upswing surfaces. Wave C-down of this consolidation is next.

Market Timing Update (9/19/14)

[745am] ES update-
Extended 3rd or extended 5th. See chart.

Thursday, September 18, 2014

Market Timing Update (9/18/14)

[EOD] Stocks-
If this potential EDT tracks (see 1215pm update), SP500 cash index is likely capped at 2026.03 for the upswing since the early September low. See chart.

[1215pm] SPX update-
Potential small-degree EDTs. See charts.

[845am] ES update-

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Market Timing Update (9/17/14)

[EOD] Stocks-
The minimum requirement for completion of wave 5 (Chart 1, red) has been met. Wave [v] of 5 may or may not extend (Chart 1, blue). Let's see what tomorrow's session brings.

[730am] ES update-

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Market Timing Update (9/16/14)

[1040am] SPX/NDX update-