Friday, October 19, 2018

MTU Weekend Ed - 200 DMA (10/19/18)

SPX is probing its 200DMA for the second week, the 6th time since the Feb 2016 low. SPX actually closed the week just below it(Chart 1). The big picture as discussed last week has not changed.  If the 200DMA gives away, dynamic support is around 2560.  Near term resistance is around 2855.

Near term structure presents several possibilities.

Price action details in 2018.

Friday, October 12, 2018

MTU Weekend Ed - Big Picture (10/12/18 close)

The big picture - Chart 1 shows the advance in SPX since its 2009 low.  Here are the tracking scenarios based on technical considerations. 

[top] If you wish to take a bullish or a bearish perspective,  the most credible scenarios are the green 5 on the bullish side and the red 5 on the bearish side.

  bullish. An EDT since Feb 2016, current in D-down, E-up next is shorter than C-up
bearish. Market has topped, prior wave 4 at a lower degree is 1800-2100, Fib retracements indicated in chart.

[next] The blue 3. Wave 4 down likely targets the election low around 2100.

[third] The blue 3*.  Wave 4 down likely a triangle to alternate with wave 2.  That the Apr-Oct advance is the complex leg of the potential triangle.  The Feb/Apr low holds.


Regarding the short term - Chart 2 tracks a potential impulse down in progress, currently in wave 4-up.  Chart 3 presents price action details in 2018 associated with the big picture tracking above. Dynamic support is around 2550 first, then 2490.

 

Saturday, October 6, 2018

MTU Weekend Ed. - Bull/Bear Tracking

Long term yields are attempting to break out, fighting the upper B-band.
  

SPX bearish count - expanding diagonal triangle as B-up or 5-up.


SPX impulse count - currently in wave [iv] correction


Tuesday, October 2, 2018

Friday, September 21, 2018

MTU Weekend Ed. - New High (9/21/18)


[Green]To count an impulse wave from the April (or May low), one needs to overlook several three-wave structures. 
[Red] To count an corrective wave from those lows, one needs to put up with the new ATH.



Sunday, September 16, 2018

MTU Weekend Ed - Dow Makes Recovery High (9/14/18)

INDU made a marginal recovery high while SPX did not.  The INDU and SPX may very well be out of sync.  The following charts reflect adjustments to the corrective and impulse tracking. 

Long term chart of Apple


Long term chart of Amazon