Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Market Timing Update (6/28/16)

[915am] ES update-
ES rebounds after completing a structure, now at near term resistance which was previous support. See chart.


Monday, June 27, 2016

Market Timing Update (6/27/16)

[EOD] Stocks-
SPX pulls back to test the Fib382 level, fills a downward gap, and closed below its MA200 and just above 2000. See chart.

[1045am] ES update-
A potential (completed/completing) 5-wave decline in ES from its Brexit high. SPX cash is filling the next gap. See charts.

[945am] SPX update- 
SPX tests its MA200 and one of the short term Fib targets. See charts.


Saturday, June 25, 2016

MTU Weekend Ed. - Bull/Bear Profiles (6/24/16 close)

... draft in progress, subject to change ...

The Brexit vote thwarted a fourth attempt to break above resistance in SPX (Chart 1 and see Breakout Attempts (6/10/16). Given the perceived impact of Brexit, this is a good time to review long term and short term bull/bear scenarios in SPX.
With the caveat that many possibilities exist, we take a look at the long term bull/bear tracking profile in Chart 2.

[Blue-bullish] The April high (2111.05) completed wave (1)/(A)-up of wave [5]-up off the 2009 bottom. A wave (2)/(B)-down is in progress.

[Black-LT bullish, ST bearish] Wave [4]-down off the 2009 bottom is still in progress. The entire pullback is likely either a (double-)zigzag-like structure or a triangle-like structure as marked on Chart 2. The Brexit crash just initiated the next leg down in these respective sequences.

[Red-bearish] SPX topped in 2015. The sell-off to 1810.10 can be counted as an LDT or an ABC-structure, the subsequent rebound to 2120.55 is an ABC structure. The Brexit crash initiated the next leg down - wave (iii)-down of an impulse or wave (c) of a flat.

This past week's price actions represent a key pivot in the above long term tracking scenarios.  Fortunately, short term wave structures in the cash index and futures are in sync with our long term interpretations.  See Chart 3 (SPX) and Chart 4 (ES).

Short term, SPX is probing for short term support around its MA200 which currently sits around 2020. Short term dynamic support is around 2035 and resistance around 2085.  There are two unfilled gaps below around 1993 and 1865 and one unfilled gap above Friday's rebound high of 2073.47 (Chart 5).


Friday, June 24, 2016

Market Timing Update (6/24/16)

[EOD] Stocks -
SPX is probing for short term support around its MA200 which currently sits at 2020. See charts.

[1255pm] SPX Update -
SPX is testing its June low and probing for potential short term support. Note the short term wedging, channel, and +ve divergence. See charts.

[740am] Brexit/ES and Currency Update -
Brexit. Political shakeout is in progress.

ES LDT/EDT crash (Chart 1) to the overnight limit down level of 1999 and subsequently rebounded to the Fib-382 level so far (Chart 2).

GBPUSD tested the blue line (potential HS neck line) and rebounded (Chart 3). EURGBP continues to hug the gray line on GBP weakness on Brexit development(Chart 4).


Thursday, June 23, 2016

Market Timing Update (6/23/16)

[230pm] SPX update -
SPX is climbing the green line in Chart 1, aiming for the overhead gap (the green gap in Chart 2). Note the two unfilled red gaps below in Chart 2. Chart 2 updates Bremain/Brexit triangles. See charts.


Wednesday, June 22, 2016

Market Timing Update (6/22/16)

Brexit/Bremain Triangles (Chart 1) and watch the green and blue lines (Chart 2).

[1140am] Brexit/Bremain Triangles?-
A variant of an idea discussed in Brexit/Bremain Triangles? (6/17/16), incorporating this weeks price action. See chart.

[10am] Currency Update-
Both GBPUSD and EURGBP could be attracted to the blue lines (potential HS neck line). Euro weakness and USD strength from the perspective of GBP if this is the case. FX market's pricing on Brexit/Bremain. See charts.


Tuesday, June 21, 2016

Market Timing Update (6/21/16)

[315pm] SPX update -
Watch these two lines, potential Brexit/Bremain lines. See chart.

[1230pm] ES update -
Potential triangle in ES if the over night low holds, (not in SPX cash yet). See chart.