Tuesday, September 1, 2015

Market Timing Update (9/1/15)

[EOD] Stocks -
At a larger degree, SPX is retesting the purple megaphone TL (Chart 1). At a smaller degree, SPX has retraced Fib618 of the rebound and is retesting the blue breakout TL (Chart 2). Let's see if these potential support areas hold.

[9am] ES update -
Continued pullback in ES overnight. See chart.




Monday, August 31, 2015

Market Timing Update (8/31/15)

[EOD] Stocks -
Month end. SPX pulls back from TL resistance. See charts.




Saturday, August 29, 2015

MTU Weekend Ed. - Monthly Outlook Update (8/28/15 close)

... draft in progress, subject to change ...
Stocks, Bonds, USD, Gold - key intermediate term scenarios to watch

Stocks
The August plunge in stocks has the potential be a fourth wave correction. Since Monday's low came at larger degree support levels, the correction in price could be (nearly) over while the correction in time has more flexibility.

The Dow Transports presents a fourth wave pullback with respect to its 2011 low and has retraced about Fib-0.382 of the third wave advance in this context (Chart S1).

In SP500, we have a potential fourth wave in two degrees, with respect to the 2011 low or the 2009 bottom (Chart S2). Note that Monday's low terminated around the mid-channel line as well as the purple megaphone boundary.

If these support levels fail, the next support is around low 1700s, the lower channel line.


Bonds
UST10Y yield index rebounded off a small-degree EDT and is back inside its prior breakout territory (Chart B1). If the momentum keeps up, yields could be ready for another run higher towards their long term resistance (Chart B2).


USD
The USD index has retraced Fib-0.382 of its 2014-15 advance (Chart $1) and successfully retested the green trend channel support (Chart $2) and has the potential to make another run higher, if near term resistance is taken out (Chart $3). Otherwise, the USD index remains technically overbought and could continue to probe for support and consolidate in time.


Gold
Gold did rebounded from the first target low basedon one of the three tracking scenarios(Chart G1, red C).  As long as Gold is below its August high as well as below $1300, the bearish gray and green EDTs remain valid though(Chart G1 and G2).





Thursday, August 27, 2015

Market Timing Update (8/27/15)

[845am] ES update -
ES is making attempt to gap up the cash market as one of the scenarios discussed at yesterday's EOD update. See chart.



Wednesday, August 26, 2015

Market Timing Update (8/26/15)

[EOD] Stocks -
SP500 closed above the purple line, regained its prior range of a potential expanding EDT. See chart 1 and chart 2.
Near term, SP500 is probing several overhead resistance levels, which may take an upward gap or some consolidation to overcome. See chart 3 and chart 4.


[130pm] SPX update -

[915am] ES update -



Tuesday, August 25, 2015

Market Timing Update (8/25/15)

[EOD] Stocks -
[905am] ES update -



Monday, August 24, 2015

Market Timing Update (8/24/15)

[EOD] Stocks -
The Dow's breach of its October low today suggests that the upswing and down-swing since Oct 2014 low is not wave (1) and (2) of [5]-up (Green (1) and (2) count in this chart).  This leaves the green [4], gray (4) and blue (4) on SP500 in Chart 1, with squiggles in Chart 2.  Note that SP500 closed around the purple asy. triangle trendline.



Transports have retraced about fib-0.382 of the advance since its 2011 low and continue to present a fourth wave option (Chart 3 & 4).


[850am] ES update -
Overnight plunge, likely fills the mid-Oct2014 gap in the cash index.