Saturday, July 4, 2015

MTU Weekend Ed. - Monthly Outlook Update (7/2/15 close)

... draft in progress, subject to change ...

Stocks, Bonds, USD, Gold - key intermediate term scenarios to watch


Stocks
Wilshire5000, Mid-caps, Nasdaq Composite and Small-caps made all-time highs in June, unconfirmed by SP500 and the Dow.  On balance, these new record highs bode suggest that the recent pullback is likely corrective ahead another upswing to new highs. This interpretation is also consistent witht he interpretation that the either the blue [3] is yet to complete or the green [5] has been in progress (Chart S1).


Several intermediate term scenarios help track this interpretation. See Chart S2 to Chart S4.



   
Bonds
Once again, the 2015 sell-off in bonds has now pushed the 10-year U.S. treasury yield towards its long-term resistance (Chart B1).  We anticipate either a wave three surge which breaks this resistance (Chart B2 green) or another rally which keeps the 10-year yield within its long-term bearish channel (Chart B2 red).


USD
In Monthly Outlook Update (5/29/15), we observed that "the green wave 4 has lasted two bars and could protract in time as well as in price to work off its overbought condition." Since then, the USD index has moved sideways and the pullback is likely not over in either time nor price. See Chart $1 and Chart $2.


Gold
The down trend is Gold($) prices continues.

Chart G1 offers 3 intermediate term target projections based on three tracking counts - Red C just below 1100, Green C around 900 and Black 5 below 800.

However, the near term bullish scenarios are still on the table but fleeting. Within the bullish scenarios (Chart G2), odds appears to favor the more bearish red ABC rebound.






Thursday, July 2, 2015

Market Timing Update (7/2/15)

[815am] ES update -


Wednesday, July 1, 2015

Market Timing Update (7/1/15)

[EOD] Stocks -
3 waves down from the nominal high in SP500 (Chart 1 and Chart 2). Let's see if the recent down wave extends (Chart 3).



[750am] ES update -
ES in an attempt to gap SPX cash above its overhead trend line resistance. See charts.


Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Market Timing Update (6/30/15)

[235pm] SPX update -
SP500 bounced off its SMA200 and is now fighting the overhead trendline resistance. See chart.

[755 am] ES update -
Month End. See charts for tracking counts, lines and squiggles.


Monday, June 29, 2015

Market Timing Update (6/29/15)

[EOD] Stocks -
BULL


BEAR

[820am] ES update -
See charts for tracking count and squiggles.  See Risk Premium (6/26/15) for details.

Saturday, June 27, 2015

MTU Weekend Ed. - Risk Premium (6/26/15 Close)


U.S. stocks pulled back steadily this past week, driving SP500 below its 50-day moving average.

A potential five-wave decline from the rebound high of 2129.87 in SP500 to Friday's low of 2095.38 (Chart 1, red) points to lower prices ahead.  Current event risks  (e.g. Greece, China) and valuations are sympathetic with the price turn.

However, the pullback in SP500 so far is likely an elongated flat based on price actions in SP500 in conjunction with other benchmark indexes (Chart 1, blue) - note the asynchronous highs and lows among indexes in Chart 1.  Wave C of this potential flat is 3 times wave A in size. If this is the case, the current pullback is wave (b)-down of [e]-up in our base case scenario (See New All Time High (6/19/15), A Decision Point (6/12/15)).



* In light of the gap down in futures on 6/28/15 over Greece, if futures does not sufficiently recover overnight,  our base case scenario should be tweaked to reflect the possibility that the current pullback serves to complete wave [d]-down.  See Chart 2.  


Meanwhile, VIX could be completing a bullish triangle if the mid-June high is not challenged.  See Chart 3.  Let's see if the priced-in risk premium pays off soon or is only an initial deposit.   





Friday, June 26, 2015

Market Timing Update (6/26/15)

[910am] ES update-
ES probes reacts to its recent breakout line. See chart.