Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Market Timing Update (11/26/14)

[210pm] SPX update-
Tracking counts and squiggles.  See charts.

  [815am] ES update-
potential triangle. See chart and yesterday's EOD update for near term tracking counts.

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Market Timing Update (11/25/14)

[PS] JNJ (Johnson & Johnson) tracking since 2009 -
In response to Mkt Man: here is one tracking count on JNJ since its 2009 low.

[EOD] Stocks -
Sideways price action over the past three sessions raised the possibility of
[1] a fully extending impulse wave from the Nov 13th low on the bullish side (green count in both charts) OR
[2] a very weak EDT whose wave E is itself a terminal sideways triangle (red count in Chart 1 and blue outlines in Chart 2).

[815am] ES update -

Monday, November 24, 2014

Market Timing Update (11/24/14)

[EOD] Stocks-

[1245pm] SPX update -
squiggles and tracking counts. see weekend commentary for details.

[750am] ES update -
EDT, regular five, or bust. See chart.

Saturday, November 22, 2014

MTU Weekend Ed. - Gaps and Triangles Galore (11/21/14)

The 13.8% upswing in SP500 from its October low is ridden with unfilled gaps and triangles. Since gaps tend to get filled eventually and oftentimes “quickly” and triangles precede terminal moves or are terminal moves themselves, we monitor them with great interest.

Chart 1 highlights 7 unfilled upward gaps in SP500 for the current upswing. 3 of those 7 gaps produce non-overlapping daily bars and the rest 4 are on an intra-day basis.

Note the location of the 3 daily gaps in relation to Friday’s high of 2071.46: 2056.75 (-0.71%), 2001.2 (-3.39%), and 1909.38(-7.82%). Filling these gaps would require a deep pullback. At the moment, the primary support for this upswing sits around 1986.

Chart 2 highlights 3 recent potential triangles in SP500 that shed light on where this upswing may terminate.

The first red expanding triangle is likely wave (iv) of the upswing, also highlighted in Chart 1.

The second red expanding triangle is likely an EDT wave (v), also highlighted in Chart 1. If this is the case, Friday’s high of 2071.46 represents the typical overthrow of an EDT and marks the end of the upswing.

The third blue contracting triangle is likely an EDT wave (v), also highlighted in Chart 1. If this is the case, wave E-up of the EDT is still developing. However, wave E-up should be capped by 2087.72 since this is a contracting triangle.

Chart 3 presents yet another potential long-term expanding ending diagonal triangle discussed in Topping Squiggles (11/14/14). This expanding EDT spans the past 12 months, with the current upswing as its wave [e]-up. Note that wave [e]-up reaches parity with wave [c]-up in price at 2074.13 or 2102 and Friday’s high is 2071.46.

Near Term Wave Counts
Our base case near term scenario is that SP500 is in wave (v)-up off its October low (Chart 1, blue). It's possible that the week-long consolidation in mid-November is a 2nd wave or a B wave (Chart 1, green). In that case, wave 3 or C since the October low is in progress with (much) greater upside potential.

For longer term tracking counts, please see Topping Squiggles (11/14/14).

Friday, November 21, 2014

Market Timing Update (11/21/14)

[340pm] SPX update-
squiggles for weekend positioning . see charts.

[1005am] SPX update-
Tracking counts and a potential expanding EDT. See charts.

[920am] ES update-
New moon. Option expiration. Overnight macro - US, ECB, China. Potential overthrow in ES. See chart.

Thursday, November 20, 2014

Market TIming Update (11/20/14)

[EOD] Stocks-
Bearish squiggles against yesterday's high in Chart 2.  The bullish interpretation is likey E of (v) of an expanding EDT in Chart 1 (black count).

[815am] ES update-
The decline from the high so far is three waves. See chart.

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Market Timing Update (11/19/14)

[215pm] SPX update-
bearish count against the AM high. see charts.

[1050am] SPX update-
First gap fill of the run. Tracking squiggles.  SPX testing potential support.  See charts.

[720am] ES update-
Potential overthrow, getting there. See charts.