Saturday, December 8, 2018

MTU Weekend Ed. - MA Crossings (12/7/18 close)

Moving average crossings paint a bearish picture for the intermediate term.  Wave structures offer short term flexibility.

The monthly SPX chart shows negative divergence (price vs RSI) against the double top in 2018.  The MACD also did a bearish crossing - note the significant weakness subsequent to such MACD bearish crossings in the past (circled).  SPX has been probing the mid-BB over the past three months.  If the mid-BB support does not hold, the lower BB (currently at 2372) presents a reasonable next-level support.

The weekly SPX chart shows the probing of the lower BB in recent weeks.  This past week's candle is not bullish.  The rectangle consolidation zone should be monitored.

The daily SPX chart finally did a death cross on Friday.  Note the steep decline in MA50 and the weakness in MA200.

Short term wave structures offer some flexibility since this past week's decline is likely a small degree first wave or B wave.

Thursday, December 6, 2018

Market Timing Update (12/6/18)

Chart 1 - Less than 1 index point ahead of a death cross in SPX, bull (green) and bear (red) tracking.
Chart 2 - Squiggles from today's low associated with the bull-bear tracking.

Wednesday, December 5, 2018

Market Timing Update (12/5/18)

How does the plunge in today's ES fit the bigger picture?  Bull (green) / Bear (red) tracking.

Tuesday, December 4, 2018

Market Timing Update (12/4/18)

A third failed probe at the MA200 from below in SPX. Less than 6 index points between MA50 and MA200 ahead of a potential death cross against the backdrop a yield curve inversion.

While a triangle is a less likely count, it's rather fitting for a bearish triangle to end on the perceived positive trade war development at G20.
SPX closed at the low and around the 0.618 fib retrace of its recent upswing. Tracking count

Friday, November 30, 2018

MTU Weekend Ed. - Probing (11/30/18 close)

SPX  is probing its SMA200 (2761.88) from below for a third time since its ATH (Chart 1).  There is a cushion of 13 index points ahead of a potential death cross.  Nearby dynamic support is around 2710 and nearby dynamic resistance is around 2770.

There are two potential bearish counts below the early November high, a potential 1-2-[i]-[ii] (Chart 2 red) looks more likely than a potential bearish triangle (Chart 2 blue).

Rising above the early November high would present a potential ABC up from the Oct low (Chart 3).

Chart 4 presents tracking counts (bullish and bearish) in a single chart. 

Wednesday, November 28, 2018