Friday, October 31, 2014

Market Timing Update (10/31/14)

[330pm] SPX update-
A potential A-B-C(EDT) pullback from this morning's Halloween high. See charts.  In addition, SP500 the cumulative AD line appears to have made a higher high today.

[10am] SPX update-
Five unfilled gaps in SPX since its October low. Charts present tracking counts and squiggles. SP500 cash index is likely poised for new highs as ES did overnight.

[735am] ES update-
Month End. Futures delivered a fresh all-time high overnight in response to further Japan QE. USD responded as well. ES is likely wrapping up the blue wave 3 (red wave [iii] of C) or green wave 5 as shown. See charts.

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Market Timing Update (10/30/14)

[310pm] SPX update -
The pullback in SPX is retesting the neckline as highlighted. see charts.

[12pm] SPX update -
Tracking counts and squiggles. Squiggles track a (green) inverse HS, a (red) EDT, a (blue) post triangle thrust. See charts.

[850am] ES update -
Tracking counts. See chart.

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Market Timing Update (10/29/14)

[225pm] SPX update -
Tracking counts post FOMC. See chart.

[1125am] SPX update -
tracking counts and squiggles. see charts.
[805am] ES update -

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Market Timing Update (10/28/14)

[1030am] SPX/NDX update -
post triangle thrusts. see charts.  Transports at a new record high.

[715am] ES update -
SPX is finally over MA50 with ES wedging and SPX likely in a post-triangle thrust when it opens. See charts.

Monday, October 27, 2014

Market Timing Update (10/27/14)

[EOD] Stocks-
An inside day for SP500. A potential 4th wave consolidation in progress. A break below the ascending support line (green) is likely bearish and the gap around 1930 would be a potential target. See chart.
While the MA50 remains illusive for SP500, Transports and NDX appear to be gunning for a new high. 

[1205pm] SPX update-
potential green triangle wave [iv]. See chart.

[820am] ES update-

Sunday, October 26, 2014

MTU Weekend Ed. - Kiss, Triple Top or New High (10/24/14 Close)

... draft in progress, subject to change ...

Our suspicion about a potential deep retrace proved to be helpful (Technical Damage (10/17/14)). SP500 has retraced 72.8% of the entire 18-day selloff in 1/3 of the time, regained its 200-day moving average and is within 2 index points of regaining its 50-day moving average.

Here are the key questions at the moment.
[1] What is the upside potential of this upswing before (at least) a meaningful pullback?
[2] Is a new record high in sight before the October low is at risk?
[3] How does it fit into the longer term tracking counts?

*** near term tracking ***
Chart 1 tracks the rebound from the October low in SP500. Two potential inverse head-and-shoulders patterns point to the 1970s and the 1980s. The pending high is counted as

[the blue wave [b]-up of a small-degree expanded flat or a triangle] where the first up leg of the rebound completed on October 22nd and a sideways pullback is now in progress. This scenario offers the potential of a new record high or a triple top.

[the green wave 3] where the rebound is a regular five-wave impulse attempting new record highs. It's also prudent to allow for a failed impulse in this case.

[the red wave C] where the rebound is a corrective ABC structure with wave C being an ending diagonal triangle. In this case, wave C should be capped by 1984. A retest of the October low is next.

*** new record high ***
At them moment, stocks are negotiating some serious resistance. For example, SP500 is facing headwinds from [1] the 50-day moving average, [2] a potential terminal EDT (Chart 1 red), and [3] the April-August prior support trendline (Chart 2, kiss and goodbye?).

A new record high on this run is possible if the blue and the green counts in Chart 1 play out. Note also that while SP500 is 2.75% away from a new hgh at Friday's high, the Transports are only 1.69% below a fresh record high.

Chart 3 (MMM) and Chart 4 (GD) shows two individul stocks with (very) similar recent price structures as that of SP500 are now making new highs. Readers can check similar actions in other SP500 components such as ABBV, FISV, GILD, LEG, LOW, UNH, and UNP.

 *** long term tracking ***
Chart 5 presents the long term scenarios since the 2009 low. If SP500 turns down (meaningfully) from current levels, the September high is likely the black wave [C] or the red wave [3]. If stocks deliver a new record high near term, the October low is likely the blue wave (4) or wave (A) of the red wave [4].

Friday, October 24, 2014

Market Timing Update (10/24/14)

[220pm] SPX update -
Tracking counts: green (no rush impulse), blue (another potential impulse), red (ABC with C an EDT). In addition, a smaller-degree IHS potentially developing. See chart.

[810am] ES update -