Saturday, December 3, 2016

MTU Weekend Ed. - Monthly Outlook Update (12/2/16)

... draft in progress, subject to change ...

Stocks, Bonds, USD, Gold - key intermediate term scenarios to watch

Stocks
SP500 is completing a seven-wave advance since its 2016 low (Chart S1 and Chart S2). Four potential structures are in play, with each fitting nicely into the larger price structure since the 2009 bottom (Chart S3).

 [1] A corrective advance since the 2016 low is ending, potentially in the form of a double zigzag (7 waves).

[2] The post-Brexit upswing may morph into an ending diagonal triangle (Chart S1 gray lines).

[3] Wave number 7 may impulse higher as a small-degree 3rd wave

[4] The upswing since the 2016 low may morph into a larger ending diagonal triangle (Chart S1 green lines)

 Scenarios [1] and [2] are consistent with the red and blue trajectories in Chart S3, while scenarios [3] and [4] are consistent with the green wave [5] in Chart S3.

Bonds
The cycle low in yields may indeed have arrived in 2016 (Chart B1-blue). If the sell-off in bonds fizzles, the red trajectory tracks a retest of the yield low. Chart B2 offers additional details of such a potential retest.


USD
The USD index is approaching potential resistance at a Fib-61.8% retrace of its depreciation between 2001 and 2009 (Chart $1). This area also corresponds to the resistance zone around 1998.
Gold
The sell-off in Gold has sent price to potential near term channel support (Chart G1) and a Fib-61.8% retrace (Chart G2). Chart G2 tracks details of the two key scenarios, the blue count and the red count in Chart G1.


Thursday, December 1, 2016

Market Timing Update (12/1/16)

[240pm] SPX update-


Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Market Timing Update (11/30/16)

[EOD] Stocks -
Month-end and marginal new high followed by a quick pullback. See chart.


Tuesday, November 29, 2016

Market Timing Update (11/29/16)

[EOD] Stocks -
SPX short term tracking (Chart 1). Squiggle tracking if a high is in (Chart 2). See charts.


Monday, November 28, 2016

Market Timing Update (11/28/16)

[EOD]Stocks -


Friday, November 25, 2016

MTU Weekend Ed. - Potential Terminal Move (11/25/16)


This week, we explore the possibility that the post-election thrust completes the the upswing from the February low. (This is one of several possibilities, but an interesting one.)

Chart 1 shows how the 2016 upswing fits into the big picture.
[green] Wave (1)-up of wave [5]-up from the 2009 bottom or wave [5]-up in its entirety.
[red] Wave (d)-up of wave [4]-down from the 2009 bottom. Wave [4]-down is an expanding triangle.
[blue] Wave (b)-up of wave [4]-down from the 2009 bottom. Wave [4]-down is either an expanding flat or a triangle.

From a wave structure perspective, one would then track the 2016 upswing as an LDT/EDT for the green scenario above or a triple-zigzag for the red and blue scenarios above. In the case of an LDT/EDT, wave E is capped by 2286 and the 2215 area where SP00 is currently at represents equality of upswing ratios. See Chart 2.


Chart 3 counts wave E, the post-election thrust, in more detail. Friday's high likely either completed wave [c]-up of E or wave iii of [c]-up of E.


Wednesday, November 23, 2016

Market Timing Update (11/23/16)

[230pm] SPX update-