Thursday, April 17, 2014

MTU Weekend Ed. - No bearish confirmation (T+1), but at resistance (4/17/14)

... draft in progress, subject to change ....

This past week was the first week after the "timed top", the T+1-th week. As we observed in It's TIME(T-0), but at potential support (4/11/14), "we look for a convincing breach of support for bearish confirmation and also entertain the possibility of an immediate new high." and "odds appear to favor a new high, perhaps allow SP500 to complete a potential ending diagonal triangle off tho October 2013 low, which is suitable for a top."



 
Price action this past week did not offer a bearish confirmation, leaving room for the ending diagonal triangle which requires a bullish confirmation (Chart 1). In the meantime, there are a couple of potentially bullish technical factors vs potentially bearish factors:


[bullish] A failed head-and-shoulders patter (Chart 2). After briefly dipping below the neck line, SP500 rebounded and regained prior range. Such price action is bullish and hints at a new high beyond 1920.

[bullish] The advance-decline line on SP500 is now leading the SO500 index, making a new all-time high following the recent rebound in stocks (Chart 3). This counts as another hint at a new high.

[bearish] Price is at near term resistance (Chart 2).

[bearish] The sell-off from the nominal high in SP500 may be a (truncated) leading diagonal wave 1/A-down. A wave 2/B rebound could be nearly over (Chart 2, red count).

Let's see now the market delivers.



Market Timing Update (4/17/14)

[715am] ES update-


Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Market Timing Update (4/16/14)

[7am] ES update -
ES regaining prior range and MA50 (Chart 1). A retest of/retrace towards the breakout area appears likely on the squiggles (Chart 2). See charts.


Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Market Timing Update (4/15/14)

[EOD]Stocks-
Stocks are back the the same resistance area. SPX is making a 2nd attempt to regain range. See charts.



[715am] ES update-
ES attempts to regain prior range. See charts.


Monday, April 14, 2014

Market Timing Update (4/14/14)

[EOD]Stocks -
SP500 is at neckline resistance. Let's see if it can regain prior range. See charts and It's TIME (T-0), but at potential support (4/11/14) for discussion.

[705am] ES update -


Friday, April 11, 2014

MTU Weekend Ed. - It’s TIME (T-0), but at potential support (4/11/14)

This past week is the “timed top” based on our timing model. See Chart 1 and our previous weekly commentaries. SP500 did plunge 4.4% from its all-time high of 1897.28 made on April 4th, 2014.

As bearish as this past week’s stock market performance is, the sell-off from nominal highs in many benchmark indexes is so far corrective and the broader market is also approaching potential near term support levels.
[1] The decline in SP500 from its all-time high is so far three waves, and that in NDX from its nominal high is an overlapping seven-wave structure. 
[2] Near term support levels for SP500 are 1810 and 1760. Friday's low of 1814.36 is close to this immediate support.  Furthermore,   SP500 is also approaching the potential blue trend line support in Chart 1.

Thus, we look for a convincing breach of support for bearish confirmation and also entertain the possibility of an immediate new high which calls for an extension in time to T+1 and potentially beyond the conventional +/-1-week tolerance window.

Odds appear to favor a new high, perhaps allow SP500 to complete a potential ending diagonal triangle off the October 2013 low, which is suitable for a top.   Under this scenario, the recent drop is wave [d] of the proposed EDT  as outlined by the green labels and trend lines in Chart 1.  Of course, the market will ultimately decide.




Market Timing Update (4/11/14)

[1135am] NDX/SPX update -

[815am] ES update -