Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Tuesday Update (3/31/20)

Here we go.   Blue wave [4] is at 50% retrace of the last leg down from 3136.72 to 2191.86

Friday, March 27, 2020

MTU Weekend Ed. - Rebound or Bull Trap (3/27/20 close)

We explored longer-term bullish scenarios in Near Term Bottom Fishing (3/20/20). This post explores longer-term bearish scenarios in more detail. 

It can be argued that we have a completed five waves up from the 2009 low to the nominal all-time high  (Chart 1). 

Chart 2 provides a more detailed count on wave [iv]-down of 5-up, as a (w)-(x)-triangle structure often seen in recent years amid market exuberance.

Also note that the plunge in the Dow has already overlapped its wave 3-up  (Chart 3), which increases the likelihood that this is a larger degree retrace.

This could be the end of a larger degree wave (5)-up or just 1-up of (5)-up (Chart 4).  In either case,  a correction of the 11-year run from 2009 to 2020 could be running and is unlikely to have lasted only 6 weeks.

For the near term, we have an impressive bullish weekly candle (Chart 2 above) but SPX is still pressured by the downward trend line until it is broken.  For short term tracking, we are monitoring the possibility of a fresh upswing (Chart 5 purple and green)  or a fourth wave flat (Chart 5 blue)

Wednesday, March 25, 2020

Wednesday Update (3/25/20)

[EOD Update]- see intraday update for description
[Intraday Update 1pm NYSE]- More clarity with additional price prints, the low is in (purple (C)) or not (blue [4])

Tuesday, March 24, 2020

Tuesday Update (3/24/20)

 [EOD Update]
Chart update to include additional price prints.  See intraday update for descriptions.

[Intraday Update, 1:20pm NYSE]
There is more clarity with additional price prints.
Tracking counts
The near term low is in - purple
Bull trap - red and Chart 2 (expanding EDT yet to complete)
Killing time - blue wave [4]-up