[PS - 730pm ET]
ES may shed some light on how low this leg can go, if this potential expanding EDT plays out - lower than 2216.5 on the March contract (Chart 3). Each leg of this potential expanding EDT has the proper relative magnitude. However, D-up took less time then B-up.
[EOD Update]
Tracking count update (Chart 1)
Red - Friday's rebound high is [4]-up, now towards [5]-down
Blue - A potential triangle wave 4-up, low as 5-down of (C)-down or (3)-down of [3]-down when the low is in.
Regarding the bigger picture, SPX is now crawling along the bottom BB, and probing its 2018 crash lows (Chart 2).
[Intraday Update - 2:05pm NYSE]
The alt-red count is the most bearish, tracking the current low as (3) of [3] - the red (3) is counted by downgrading the labels from the red (2) onward one degree lower (Chart 1).
SPX is probing its 2018 crash low (Chart 2)
US Indexes
ReplyDeleteAll the mkts has done on 16 March is retest Fridays low.
CHART 2 shows min req for neg 5 down from the 4 March minor top, particularly if this wave from there had wave 1 with the most energy. The slow clustering after open is consistent with a 5.
We still tho have to be alert to the possibility - be it remote - that the countertrend move from 12-13 March (Blue 3 to the Friday close peak) may be wave 1 - 2 of a extended larger deg C or 3.
The whole determinative question is whether the wave from 4 Mar is contracting or expanding. If wave 1 to 9 Mar (Blue 1) is the yardstick and the longest of a contracting wave from thereon then prob is this 5 waver from 4 Mar is over or close to it. If it not but expanding (with an extnded wave 3 forming now) then more down side is possible.
Given the position of where most other OS indexes and stks are I think the downside risk is minimal.