Monday, March 16, 2020

Monday Update (3/16/20)


[PS - 730pm ET]
ES may shed some light on how low this leg can go, if this potential expanding EDT plays out - lower than 2216.5 on the March contract (Chart 3).  Each leg of this potential expanding EDT has the proper relative magnitude.  However, D-up took less time then B-up.



[EOD Update]
Tracking count update (Chart 1)
Red -  Friday's rebound high is [4]-up, now towards [5]-down
Blue -   A potential triangle wave 4-up,  low as 5-down of (C)-down or (3)-down of [3]-down when the low is in.

Regarding the bigger picture,  SPX is now crawling along the bottom BB,  and probing its 2018 crash lows (Chart 2).


 



[Intraday Update - 2:05pm NYSE]

The alt-red count is the most bearish, tracking the current low as (3) of [3] -  the red (3) is counted by downgrading the labels from the red (2) onward one degree lower (Chart 1).

SPX is probing its 2018 crash low (Chart 2)




  

1 comment:

  1. US Indexes

    All the mkts has done on 16 March is retest Fridays low.

    CHART 2 shows min req for neg 5 down from the 4 March minor top, particularly if this wave from there had wave 1 with the most energy. The slow clustering after open is consistent with a 5.

    We still tho have to be alert to the possibility - be it remote - that the countertrend move from 12-13 March (Blue 3 to the Friday close peak) may be wave 1 - 2 of a extended larger deg C or 3.

    The whole determinative question is whether the wave from 4 Mar is contracting or expanding. If wave 1 to 9 Mar (Blue 1) is the yardstick and the longest of a contracting wave from thereon then prob is this 5 waver from 4 Mar is over or close to it. If it not but expanding (with an extnded wave 3 forming now) then more down side is possible.

    Given the position of where most other OS indexes and stks are I think the downside risk is minimal.

    ReplyDelete