Thursday, June 30, 2016

Market Timing Update (6/30/16)

[EOD] Stocks-
A strong upswing (Chart 1 and Chart 2), bringing SPX to a 5th breakout attempt(Chart 3)

[1255pm] SPX update-
Squiggles update. Continued advance raises the probability of a wave five (see the green tracking count in Chart).

[1118am] SPX update-
Squiggles from the low. Nice Fib ratio and a potential small degree expanding EDT to wrap up three waves (abc or 123). See chart.

[1035am] ES update-
ES retested the red line (pre-brexit wedge) this morning. See chart.

Wednesday, June 29, 2016

Market Timing Update (6/29/16)

[EOD] Stocks-
A strong three-wave recovery so far, breaking several resistance zones and approaching others (e.g. dynamic support at 2040, resistance at 2070), also leaving two gaps. See charts.

[1030am] SPX update -
ABC up in SPX so far. SPX and ES) are now at the underside of the ES EDT (see 850am update). See charts.

[850am] ES update - ES continues higher, gunning for the red line which is the underside of a potential Brexit EDT (Chart 1). Above 2047.25 ES invalidates the potential LDT/EDT discussed yesterday (Chart 2).

Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Market Timing Update (6/28/16)

[EOD] Stocks -
SPX closed above its MA200 again, filled an overhead gap, and produced a bullish candle. See Chart 1.

If the low is in, the green [w]-[x]-[y] tracks it. The next upswing could be a third wave up. At the moment, a retest of the low/pull back looks probable under this interpretation.

From a bearish perspective, last Friday and today both saw a strong single-day rebound, both are zigzags/threes, and the bond market did not participate in today's recovery. So keep an eye on this LDT/EDT in ES if the post Brexit low is to be breached. See Chart 2.

[220pm] SPX update-
The rebound in SPX stalled at the ES trend line resistance (see 915am update) as well as cash MA200. Let's see if SPX can close above its MA200 (around 2021) and even close the overhead gap. See chart.

[915am] ES update-
ES rebounds after completing a structure, now at near term resistance which was previous support. See chart.


Monday, June 27, 2016

Market Timing Update (6/27/16)

[EOD] Stocks-
SPX pulls back to test the Fib382 level, fills a downward gap, and closed below its MA200 and just above 2000. See chart.

[1045am] ES update-
A potential (completed/completing) 5-wave decline in ES from its Brexit high. SPX cash is filling the next gap. See charts.

[945am] SPX update- 
SPX tests its MA200 and one of the short term Fib targets. See charts.


Saturday, June 25, 2016

MTU Weekend Ed. - Bull/Bear Profiles (6/24/16 close)

... draft in progress, subject to change ...

The Brexit vote thwarted a fourth attempt to break above resistance in SPX (Chart 1 and see Breakout Attempts (6/10/16). Given the perceived impact of Brexit, this is a good time to review long term and short term bull/bear scenarios in SPX.
With the caveat that many possibilities exist, we take a look at the long term bull/bear tracking profile in Chart 2.

[Blue-bullish] The April high (2111.05) completed wave (1)/(A)-up of wave [5]-up off the 2009 bottom. A wave (2)/(B)-down is in progress.

[Black-LT bullish, ST bearish] Wave [4]-down off the 2009 bottom is still in progress. The entire pullback is likely either a (double-)zigzag-like structure or a triangle-like structure as marked on Chart 2. The Brexit crash just initiated the next leg down in these respective sequences.

[Red-bearish] SPX topped in 2015. The sell-off to 1810.10 can be counted as an LDT or an ABC-structure, the subsequent rebound to 2120.55 is an ABC structure. The Brexit crash initiated the next leg down - wave (iii)-down of an impulse or wave (c) of a flat.

This past week's price actions represent a key pivot in the above long term tracking scenarios.  Fortunately, short term wave structures in the cash index and futures are in sync with our long term interpretations.  See Chart 3 (SPX) and Chart 4 (ES).

Short term, SPX is probing for short term support around its MA200 which currently sits around 2020. Short term dynamic support is around 2035 and resistance around 2085.  There are two unfilled gaps below around 1993 and 1865 and one unfilled gap above Friday's rebound high of 2073.47 (Chart 5).


Friday, June 24, 2016

Market Timing Update (6/24/16)

[EOD] Stocks -
SPX is probing for short term support around its MA200 which currently sits at 2020. See charts.

[1255pm] SPX Update -
SPX is testing its June low and probing for potential short term support. Note the short term wedging, channel, and +ve divergence. See charts.

[740am] Brexit/ES and Currency Update -
Brexit. Political shakeout is in progress.

ES LDT/EDT crash (Chart 1) to the overnight limit down level of 1999 and subsequently rebounded to the Fib-382 level so far (Chart 2).

GBPUSD tested the blue line (potential HS neck line) and rebounded (Chart 3). EURGBP continues to hug the gray line on GBP weakness on Brexit development(Chart 4).


Thursday, June 23, 2016

Market Timing Update (6/23/16)

[230pm] SPX update -
SPX is climbing the green line in Chart 1, aiming for the overhead gap (the green gap in Chart 2). Note the two unfilled red gaps below in Chart 2. Chart 2 updates Bremain/Brexit triangles. See charts.


Wednesday, June 22, 2016

Market Timing Update (6/22/16)

Brexit/Bremain Triangles (Chart 1) and watch the green and blue lines (Chart 2).

[1140am] Brexit/Bremain Triangles?-
A variant of an idea discussed in Brexit/Bremain Triangles? (6/17/16), incorporating this weeks price action. See chart.

[10am] Currency Update-
Both GBPUSD and EURGBP could be attracted to the blue lines (potential HS neck line). Euro weakness and USD strength from the perspective of GBP if this is the case. FX market's pricing on Brexit/Bremain. See charts.


Tuesday, June 21, 2016

Market Timing Update (6/21/16)

[315pm] SPX update -
Watch these two lines, potential Brexit/Bremain lines. See chart.

[1230pm] ES update -
Potential triangle in ES if the over night low holds, (not in SPX cash yet). See chart.


Monday, June 20, 2016

Market Timing Update (6/20/16)

[EOD] Stocks -
Reaction at the green line indeed.

[10am] SPX update -
The green C in Chart 1 shows an odd-shaped bullish triangle, a variant of the one discussed in the weekend update.
SPX is now at the green line in Chart 2. We could see a reaction.


Friday, June 17, 2016

MTU Weekend Ed. - Brexit/Bremain Triangle? (6/17/16)

Like the first two breakout attempts, the third one has also failed. See Chart 1 and Breakout Attempts (6/10/16).

Markets, like world's leading central banks, may be on hold ahead of the Brexit/Bremain vote, now that the intial amount of risk premium has been priced in. Stocks could fluctuate within the wide range defined by price actions over the past week. This possibility (which is not the only scenario) brings up an interesting triangle - either bullish (Chart 2 green C) or bearish (Chart 2, red B).

Potential support currently sits around 2035 and resistance around 2085.  

Chart 3 updates our ABC tracking.