Friday, November 30, 2012

Market Timing Update (11/30/12)

[925am] ES update -
Month end. Potential support at prior neckline and downward trendline on retrace. A retest of those lines appears likely.

Thursday, November 29, 2012

Market Timing Update (11/29/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
For the near term, a complex small-degree 4th wave or an extending 5th wave could be in progress. See chart 1 (SPX) and chart 2 (ES). Tomorrow is month-end. I will show some interesting observations on the big picture in the weekend commentary.

[1205pm] SPX update -
Tracking counts update and squiggles. See charts. ES tracks Chart 1-blue and Chart 2-green better at the moment.

[940am] SPX update -
Tracking counts from the perspective of SP500 cash index.
[650am] ES update -
Post-full-moon (yesterday) and pre-month-end (tomorrow). ES once again is above the neckline as well as the prior down trend line, and is approaching Fib-618 retrace (Chart 1). Picture perfect (Chart 2).

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Market Timing Update (11/28/12)

[EOD] Stocks -

SPX closed at the neckline which could present near term resistance (Chart 1 to the right).

Chart 2 updates the tracking counts which make the rebound from today's low as

[green] a 5th wave
[blue [x] or red B] an corrective connecting wave
[blue [i], post red X] start of another upswing.

Chart 3 squiggles today's rebound. It shows that a five up is nearly or already up, or a double-three is missing the final [b] down and [c]-up. The squiggles pair up with options in Chart 2 fairly well.

[140pm] SPX update -
Please see the 2nd chart below.
[950am] SPX update -
Tracking counts from the perspective of SP500 cash index. Note that MA200 roughly coincides with a fib-382 retrace.

[7am] ES update -
A potential 4th wave or retrace/reversal of an ABC rise.

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Market Timing Update (11/27/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
The prior neckline remains powerful(Chart 1), while near term options vary (Chart 2-ES and Chart 3-SPX). Subjectively speaking, odds appear to favor continued subdivision higher for the near term wrap up an extended impulse.

[1010am] ES/SPX update -
SPX and ES tracking counts as shown in Chart 1 and Chart 2 are roughly in sync. Please see yesterday's EOD update for discussion.

Monday, November 26, 2012

Market Timing Update (11/26/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
Chart 1 updates the near term bearish tracking counts, with the rise from today's low as a B-wave (or to a lesser extent, end of a 2nd wave). Given the higher high in NDX and lack of momentum in the rebound from today's low, the rebound exhibits the personality of a 7th wave, either of an extended impulse wave (Chart 2 green) or of an ending double three (Chart 2, red).

[950am] SPX update -
Tracking counts from the perspective of SP500 cash index. Let's see whether the current decline is a small-degree 4th wave or the start of a larger retrace. See chart.
[910am] ES update -
ES pushed over the neckline resistance last Friday, now retesting it. See chart. Please see Upswing (11/23/12) for details.

Friday, November 23, 2012

MTU Weekend Ed. - Upswing (11/23/12 close)

The proposed final upswing of the Hope Rally is likely underway as SP500 has rebounded 4.9% from last Friday’s low (1343) to 1409, recovered half of the loss since its September high (1474), and regained its 200-day moving average (1383) as potential support.

SP500 is now approaching key resistance levels. A retest of the low or consolidation is likely next. Potential resistance includes [1] the prior “neckline” around Friday’s high (Chart 1) [2] the Sep-to-Nov downtrend average around 1425 and [3] the 50-day moving average around 1426.

From a wave count perspective, a five-wave advance from the low is approaching its end (Chart 2, blue).  This potential five-wave advance shows up across leading indexes, such as SPX, INDU, NDX and Transports.  If so, a pullback against this initial advance is likely next.

On a separate note, VIX has cheapened significantly on a relative basis due to an increase in realized volatility in recent weeks as well as a decline in implied volatility.

It's also prudent to note the possibility of an uninterrupted advance for the time being.

As discussed in Post Election Plunge (11/9/12), "the price structure of the recent sell-off resembles that of a larger correction in 2011".  If history rhymes, a correction may not be due before SPX clears both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and all the way to point #6 of the proposed "fractal".  See Chart 3.

Moreover, ES is already over its neckline resistance (Chart 4).

Market Timing Update (11/23/12)

[940am] SPX update -
Squiggle level tracking counts from the perspective of the SPX cash index. See chart.
[745am] ES update -
ES approaching the prior neckline resistance (Chart 1). Moreover, a five up from its nominal low is likely complete with a potential tiny truncation (Chart 2 blue). The negative divergence with MACD is quite pronounced. See yesterday's EOD update for corresponding counts on the SPX cash index - EDT overthrow

Competing counts are also interesting.
Red - wave C-up ended or a strong [iii] of C-up advance next.
Green - an interim correction is already in progress, either as a flat or complex three w-x-y / triangle.

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Market Timing Update (11/21/12)

[EOD] Stock -
Primary count on SPX - [i]-up or [a]-up from the November low is approaching its end if not over (Chart 1 to the right - blue, purple) and Chart 2 (blue).
Note the potential EDT (Chart 2 blue and Chart 3) awaiting overthrow or forsaking overthrow.

Alternative count -
Chart 2 red - expanded flat or triangle pullback is in progress.
Chart 2 purple - a simple zigzag rebound, with C-up extending higher or even potentially losing steam as an EDT around current levels.

[950am] SPX update -
From the perspective of SPX cash index.
[6am] ES update -
ES is approaching the prior neckline resistance (Chart 1) with a potential five-up from the low likely complete (Chart 2). A potential retest of the low appears likely.

Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Market Timing Update (11/20/12)

[350pm/EOD] Stocks -
Tracking counts (Chart 1) and the larger picture (Chart 2).

[11am] SPX update -
Tracking counts ahead of Ben S. Bernanke's speech.
blue [iv] - sideways triangle bidding time
gray [v] - subdivide higher to wrap up 1/A-up
red [v] - wedge up to wrap up 1/A-up, does not apply to INDU given its lower low.

[935am] SPX update -

A perspective from the SPX cash index. See 840am update on ES for details.
[840am] ES update -
As previously discussed, the primary count is that wave [iv]-down is in progress. See chart and see yesterday's EOD update for details and the larger count.