Thursday, June 28, 2012

Market Timing Update (6/28/12)

[11:20am] SPX update -
The proposed down swing is now in progress. How far it can reach depends on which count is on track (green or red)

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Market Timing Update (6/27/12)

[2pm/EOD] SPX update -
Tracking counts update since the June low. Odds appear to favor another near term down swing barring the orthodox low (green "or(2)").

[1010am] SPX update -
SPX regains prior breakout level (Chart 1). Chart 2 updates the squiggle count since the low (Chart 2).

Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Market Timing Update (6/26/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
SP500 is retesting the prior breakout area, now resistance (Chart 1). As stated earlier, for both bearish and bullish counts, there should be etter form if there's another drop. Let's see if one comes. Chart 2 offers a squiggle count from the recent low.

 [1235pm] SPX update -
For both bearish and bullish counts, there should be etter form if there's another drop. Let's see if one comes.

[640am] ES update -
See charts and yesterday's EOD update for discussion.

Monday, June 25, 2012

Market Timing Update (6/25/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
Chart 1 updates the squiggle count with a potential small-degree 4th or B wave into the close on the bearish side or a potential nascent rally/rebound on the bullish side.

Chart 2 updates the larger count for the Hope Rally (See recent weekend editions for discussion). As such, the bull/bear tug-of-war is still in progress. Let's see which one is more on track.
The red c-down represents the bearish count.
The blue/green counts are bullish, with the current downswing potentially just a retest of the gray "base-channel".

[1010am] SPX squiggles -

[915am] ES update -
Various tracking counts. See Retesting or Rolling Over (6/22/12) for discussions. Top candidates for the overnight decline in ES are small-degree 5th, C or B of an expanded flat/triangle.

Friday, June 22, 2012

MTU Weekend Ed. - Retesting or Rolling Over (6/22/12 Close)

U.S. stocks turned sharply lower this past week after having retraced around 0.618Fib with respect to the May-June sell-off and retested their prior break-down levels (Chart 1 pink and Chart 2).

The key question - Is Thursday’s plunge the start of the next major downward swing (Chart 1 pink) or just a sharp retest of its recent breakout area (Chart 1 green and blue)?  It’s difficult to assess the odds at the moment (see below), with odds moderately favor the bearish view for the near term. 

That said, the risk/reward profile can be attractive if one is to fade a further rebound given the sharp and sizable reversals in May and over the past week, provided that (1) the rebound is corrective (2) a hard stop is set at the recent high of 1363.45 in SP500 and (3) a prudent position size is adopted. See Chart 3 for a squiggle count.

The 2.86% “plunge” from the rebound high of 1363.46 to Thursday’s low of 1324.41 in SP500 exhibits interesting technical features.

The sell-off supports the bearish case, as it reverses a visual three-wave rebound (Chart 2), which is bearish.

However, there is a decent bullish case to be made.
[1] It retraced around the 0.382-Fib of the upswing from the June 4th low and around the 0.618-Feb of the advance since the June 13th low following a week-long consolidation.

[2] With Friday’s 0.72% rebound, it has so far successfully retested the upper end of this consolidation zone. This is especially the case if there’s follow-through buying next week.
[3] While lacking the ideal look, the rebound off the June low to the recent high can be counted as a five-wave advance with a lengthy fourth wave (Chart 4, green).

From this perspective, the recent sell-off merely retested the prior 4th wave of a lesser degree - a typical feature of a correction. The recent sell-off is either [a]-down of wave 2 (deep) or the entire wave 2 (shallow).

Market Timing Update (6/22/12)

[3pm] SPX update -
[1120am] SPX update -
SPX is trying to regain the prior breakout support.See charts.

[720am] ES/SPX update -
Larger tracking counts on ES and squiggle count on SPX. See charts.

Thursday, June 21, 2012

Market Timing Update (6/21/12)

[EOD] Stocks (SPX) -
Stocks are either retesting its recent breakout area or starting the next down swing (Chart 1). The next rebound will shed more light on the odds.  Chart 2 shows top tracking squiggle counts. The bearish count is straightforward. The bullish count has the current selloff as a 2nd wave or an X wave, retracing about 0.618fib of the prior advance and 0.382fib of the rebound since the June low in SPX.

[240pm] Tracking counts (SPX) -
[1230pm] SPX update - 
Failed triangle, potential flat 2nd or 4th wave into potential major support area.

[920am] ES update - Likely a small degree 4th wave ascending triangle in ES. See charts.

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Market Timing Update (6/20/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
Based on the wave structure, odds favor the blue wave 4 count. See chart.
[125pm] Post FOMC announcement update -
See the 2nd chart below.
[1230pm] Pre FOMC announcement update -

[915am] ES update -

Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Market Timing Update (6/19/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
If the current upswing started around June 14th, SPX is likely approaching its end which would be labeled as a bearish (C) or bullish (3). See Chart 1 (red) and Chart 2 ( pink*).
If the current upswing started around June 12th, there's more upward subdivision (See other counts in Chart 1 and Chart 2).
Big picture wise, the rebound has now satisfied a wave 2/B structure in terms of price and time under the bearish interpretation is on track. The bullish interpretation, naturally, calls for new highs.

[1045am] SPX update -

[840am] ES update -
ES now has retraced around 0.618-fib of the decline from the potential orthodox high (Chart 1). The recent leg of rebound has been policy and policy expectation driven (Chart 3, right).

Monday, June 18, 2012

Market Timing Update (6/18/12)

[EOD] Stocks -

[955am] SPX update -

[650am] ES update -
ES is retesting the green trendline following its recent breakout (Chart 1), a potential small-degree 4th wave (Chart 2).