Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Market Timing Update (2/14/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
Price actions over the past four days raise the odds of extension at one degree larger than previously anticipated. See
Chart 1 (daily) - blue alt (iv) with blue [iii] is itself extending extending.
Chart 2 (30 min) - pink (iv) where the green [iii] is itself extending.

A close contender is wave four at a degree higher, with today's low as wave (a). See
Chart 1 (daily) - green [iv].
Chart 2 (30 min) - purple (a)

The bearish count places the rebound into the close as the first wave ii-up. Breaking the range over the past four days will offer confirmation to these possibilities.  Chart 3 to the right offers a squiggle count on 1-minute bars.

[240pm] SPX update -
Note that SPX is likely the weakest of the bunch for today.

[955am] SPX update -
Given the wave structure of the DAX, odds appear to favor the green ii-down of (v)-up count.

[840am] ES update -
The tug of war continues between a larger wave 4 correction off the Nov low (red) or the end of a final small-degree 5th wave off the Dec low (blue). Similar spot if one interpret a double zigzag off the Dec low (i.e. the start of the second B or the end of the second A).