Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Market Timing Update (1/3/12)

[EOD] Stocks -
The primary count is a post triangle thrust (see 2012 Outlook (12/30/11 close)) (Chart 1).  The minimum requirement for a high was met in 2011.  Today, the minimum requirement for a high is met on the squiggle level, either with a truncated small-degree 5th (Chart 2, red) or a double three (Chart 2, blue). 

Upside potential exists with near term uptrend still intact.  Potential targets are around 1330 as marked in Chart 1.Separately, the IHS projects a new high (or almost a new high) as marked by the green line in Chart 1

The December low, where the potential triangle B ended, is key to both bullish and bearish counts.

[11am] SPX update -
Getting close. See the larger count in Chart 1 and 2012 Outlook (12/30/11 close) for details.

Squiggle-wise, if the advance off the Dec 20th low is a five, it should be capped at 1288.50 as the red [iii] is shorter than the red [i] as marked. Otherwise, look for a double three or extension.

[730am] DAX, ES update -
Potential post-triangle thrust and a bull trap. See 2012 Outlook (12/30/11 close) for details.